Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#11 – Dillon Gee
What I thought: Actually, Dr. Pangloss, my optimistic friend said, “Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.”
Reality: And by some measures, Gee has been even better than that.  Gee is third on the Mets’ pitching staff in WAR (1.0), trailing only Jon Niese (2.1) and Chris Capuano (1.0) and Capuano by fractions of a win.  Gee appears due for some regression as his .247 BABIP looks unsustainable.  Still, with an ERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 4.19, he should be able to manage that slide.  His xFIP is fourth among the starters, behind Niese (3.32), Capuano (3.72) and R.A. Dickey (3.88).
Stock: UP.  He’s a big league starter and potentially a back-end guy on a playoff team.

#12 – CF Darrell Ceciliani

What I thought: The chops to play centerfield combined with some speed and hitting ability made Ceciliani one to watch.
Reality: The BABIP monster can be a merciless foe, huh?  His BABIP has dropped from .435 in the New York-Penn League in 2010 to .303 in Savannah, dragging his average down from .351 to .244.  Ceciliani, who turned 21 in June has essentially maintained his strikeout rate, while bumping his walk rate, which is nice.  Notice that the extra-base hit rate is down against tougher pitchers.
Stock: Down.

Basic

Advanced

#13 – RF Cory Vaughn
What I thought: Vaughn was described as having nice tools for right field and was coming off a record-setting performance with 14 homers for Brooklyn in 2010.
Reality: The 22-year-old Vaughn does have a big league body, and showed off a nice arm in right, and enough speed for center in a pinch. He had a more advanced approach than I expected, but less power.  Historic Grayson Stadium, the Gnats’ home park, robs hitters of homers and extra-base because it’s so big to the gaps.  However, I didn’t see a ton of loft in Vaughn’s swing.  All the same, he was the most dangerous hitter on a Gnats’ team that won the first half title, so I think at some point, pitchers in the South Atlantic League stopped giving him much to hit.
A combined 19 hit-by-pitches between Savannah and St. Lucie sustain his on-base percentage.  That’s fine, drawing HBP is a repeatable skill but it does expose Vaughn to some injury risk down the road.
It turns out Vaughn’s extra-base hit rate is a tick below the average for right fielders who collectively have extra-base hits in 8% of their plate appearances.
Stock: Holding until he shows more power.
Basic

Advanced

#14 – LHP Juan Urbina
What I thought: The scouting reports on the projectable lefty with big league bloodlines were nice.
Reality: He’s been hit very hard in five starts as an 18-year old in the Appalachian League.  Sure, he’s young, but he’s giving up a ton of hits and walking batters.   I read the numbers to suggest that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff at all.  I don’t want to make too much of five starts, but it’s a concerning beginning.
Stock: Slipping.

Basic

Advanced

#15 – RHP Pedro Beato
What I thought: Beato would fit nicely into the Mets bullpen.
Reality: That happened.  His 0.2 WAR is third among Mets relievers behind K-Rod and Bobby Parnell, which is to say, he’s up to #2 now.  His 5.31 K/9 is strangely low given his fastball, but it’s worked for Beato.
Stock: Up.  He’s a big leaguer now.

Dillon Gee’s second outing was much better than his first as he picked up the first win by a Bisons’ starter Tuesday.  His line: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.  Gee told Bisons.com: “I got them to hit my pitches tonight and luckily the defense did a great job… I felt a little bit more in control tonight; all my pitches were a little bit sharper tonight. I was locating better than I did last time, and again the run support definitely eases the game, I got to give credit to those guys.”

Gee’s strong start, coupled with the Mets rainout Tuesday, had the beat writers speculating on Twitter that Gee would get the nod for the Mets in Atlanta Sunday.

“Those guys” included 1B Nick Evans who was 2-4 with a homer and 3B Zach Lutz who was 2-4 with a double and a jack.  With three doubles and a homer in five games, Lutz is hitting .300/.333/.600.  SS Ruben Tejada was 1-4 and now has a hit in five of the first six of the Bisons games.

AA: @ Erie Sea Wolves (DET) 7, Binghamton Mets 6
The B-Mets committed four errors in this one, and the last one was the costliest as reliever Johnny Lujan’s errant throw to second base wound up in center field and allowed the winning run to score in the bottom of the ninth.
The B-Mets bats had to deal with Tigers top prospect Jacob Turner. The top two spots in the order, SS Jordany Valdespin (2-4, 2 RBI) and 2B Josh Satin (3-5, R)  were up to the challenge, accounting for half of the B-Mets 10 hits.

Josh Stinson was ok: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 5 go/5 ao.

Height/Weight: 6’1”/195

Acquired: 21^st rd 2007 (U Texas at Arlington)

Born: 4/28/86 (Cleborne, TX)

2010 Rank: #22

Why Ranked Here: Gee climbed 11 spots over his ranking last year, by staying healthy and having a very fine season for AAA Buffalo that landed him in the big leagues in September.  At this point, Gee’s big league readiness outweighs the potential of others beneath him.  However, he lands outside the Top 10, because I don’t see a big ceiling here.

The signings of Chris Young and Chris Capuano more or less denied Gee a chance to break Spring Training as the Mets’ fifth starter.  However, assuming that he’s healthy, a return to the big leagues is a matter of when, not if.  Teams always need more than five starters.  Some need seven or eight in a year.

Gee works off a fastball that averages 89 mph.  That’s a tick below average from a right-hander, but it plays up because he locates well.  He’s worked to add a curveball to his arsenal to go along with his slider and changeup.  In his big league starts, he threw his changeup almost 17% of the time, his slider 15.5% and his curve 8%.  The changeup grades out the best of the breaking balls, with the slider second.

With 33 innings of 2.15 ERA baseball, Gee has already given the Mets more Major League value than the team will reap from all but a few players on this list. Citi Field’s spacious dimensions should help Gee who is very much a fly-ball pitcher.

2010: In 2010, he led the International League and set a new Buffalo Bisons’ single-season record with 165 strikeouts.  He was second in the IL, behind Rays prospect Jeremy Hellickson, with 9.20 K/9.  Gee was durable too, tying for the IL lead with 28 starts. He attacks the strike zone too, walking only 2.3 batters per nine.  He also led the league in home runs allowed (23) on his way to a pedestrian 4.96 ERA.

The Mets rewarded Gee with a look in September and, because baseball is a funny game, his Major League ERA was lower than his minor league ERA even though his peripherals regressed.  In 33 big league innings, he fanned 17 (4.6 K/9) and walked 15 (4.1 BB/9) while his ERA dropped to a sparkling 2.18 thanks in part to a .232 BABIP.

No pitcher could put up a 2.13 ERA in the big leagues over a full season with a K/BB ratio of 17/15.  On the other hand, Gee has a minor league track record full of strikes.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.

Debbie Downer Says: Meh.  Do back-end guys win pennants?

Projected 2011 Start: AAA Buffalo

MLB Arrival: September 2010.  Ok, cheating.  He’ll be back soon.

Frankly I was not shocked to see Gee on the list, but I was a little surprised to see Nieuwenhuis appear on this list.  Here are Goldstein’s comments on Gee and Nieuwenhuis:

Gee:

He struck out 165 in 161 innings—leading the International League in that category—and then posted a 2.18 ERA in five MLB appearances. Mets fans want to view him as a rotation answer. Here’s the good part: he can throw up to five pitches. Here’s the bad part: none of them (maybe his changeup) can miss bats consistently at the major-league level. In 33 IP with the Mets, he K’d only 17. Look at that stat more than the ERA; he’s a fifth starter in all likelihood.

Goldstein’s comments are eerily similar to Toby’s from last week.  Gee had success in his brief stint with the Mets, but his overall #’s would indicate he was more lucky than good.  Turn those numbers into a full season, and it won’t be pretty.

Nieuwenhuis:

Nieuwenhuis can hit and has gap-to-average power. The issue is more a matter of context. Evaluated as a center fielder (his current position), Nieuwenhuis is a potential above-average starter. The bad news is that his defensive reviews are marginal, as for many talent evaluators, he lacks the speed and instincts to stay up the middle. He might lack the run production ability to become an everyday corner outfielder in the bigs, though.

So, with the bat, he has the “potential to be an above average starter” in centerfield, but the concerns are on the defensive end.  Obviously his ability to stay in CF, is the key to his long-term value.  If moved to a corner spot, I believe his ability to hit lefties and to make enough contact are the big issues for him moving forward.

Gee is the only player from the 21st round in 2007 to reach the Major Leagues with the team that drafted him.  The only other Major Leaguer: the White Sox Chris Sale.  The Rockies took a gamble on Sale with the eighth pick of the 21st round but he did not sign.  Instead, he went to Florida Gulf Coast University and transformed himself into a first round pick of the White Sox this summer.   After 10.1 innings in the minors, he was dropped directly in the Sox bullpen where he’s been very good.

Ten players, including Sale, did not sign with the team that drafted them.  Of the 20 players who signed, 11 were out of affiliated baseball in 2010.  Only seven of the 30 picks in the round had made it to AA by 2010.  Only one other player, the Yankees infielder Justin Synder has played at AAA for the team who drafted him in ’07; he had a whopping six at bats at triple-A this summer.

So, whatever Gee turns into, whether it’s a fifth starter, middle reliever, or less, the Mets scouting and player development folks can already pat themselves on the back and smile and nod for already deriving more value from the 21st round of the 2007 draft than every other team in baseball.

The complete 21st round of the 2007 draft follows below the jump.

Pick – Overall- Team – Player – Pos – School – Notes

1 635 TB Kevin Brophy rhp UCLA CA — Pitched in one one season in the Appalachian League where in 12 games he gave up ten runs and walked 17 in 15.2 innings pitched.

2 636 KC Josh Billeaud rhp Louisiana State-Eunice JC LA - Did Not Sign

3 637 CHC Dustin Sasser lhp East Carolina NC — Reached AA for the first time in 2009 throwing twelve games in relief.  In 2010, he fanned 18 and walked 18 in 27.1 relief innings with a 4.61 ERA.

4 638 PIT Matt Cavagnaro 2b Penn State PA– Last spotted in the independent Atlantic League in 2009 where he hit .259/.309/.387 in 94 games.  He did not play professional baseball in 2010.

5 639 BAL Scott Mueller rhp Arizona State AZ – Threw 23 innings in 2009 with a 7.04 ERA and 32 hits in the SAL and was released in December.

6 640 WAS Anthony Benner 3b Southwestern (Calif.) JC CA Hit .256/.360/.319 in 58 games in the New York Penn League, was placed on the restricted list at the beginning of the 2008 season and has never played again.

7 641 MIL Connor Hoehn rhp St. John’s HS, Washington, D.C. DC - Did not sign

8 642 COL Chris Sale lhp Lakeland (Fla.) HS FL – Did not Sign. Drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 1st round of the 2010 draft out of Florida Gulf Coast and made his MLB debut on August 6, 2010.  He’s been excellent in the Major Leagues with a 1.27 ERA and 28 strikeouts against 10 walks in 21.1 innings out of the Sox bullpen.

9 643 ARI Anthony Smith of St. John’s NY – After hitting .259/.324/.392 in his first two seasons topping out in the Midwest League, he turned to pitching where he had a 9.41 ERA in seven games in 2009 with Moussoula where he walked 14 and gave up 36 hits for a 9.41 ERA in 22 innings.   Did not play in 2010.

10 644 SF Danny Otero rhp South Florida FL- Named the 2007 MiLB.com Short Season Reliever of the year for his 1.21 ERA and 15 strikeouts against no walks in 22.1 innings pitched.  He was effective as a reliever in 39 games in AA with 31 strikeouts against 10 walks in 39 innings, but tossed just 13.1 innings over 10 games with 4.05 ERA in advanced-A this year.

11 645 SEA Travis Mortimore lhp Wayne State (Neb.) NE – High Desert is a hard place to pitch, but Mortimore’s ERA was at least 7.07 in each of his three seasons in the advanced-A California League.

12 646 FLA Ryan Curry 2b Bradley IL – Reached AA for the first time in 2010 where he hit .251/.288/.357 in a full season’s worth of work: 118 games.

13 647 CLE – Jared Clark of/rhp Cal State Fullerton CA- Did Not Sign

14 648 ATL Kuyaunnis Miles of Chattahoochee Valley (Ala.) CC – Out of baseball in 2010 after hitting .192/.231/.268 in 113 games in rookie ball and A-ball in 2008 and 2009.
AL

15 649 CIN Jeremy Horst lhp Armstrong Atlantic State (Ga.) GA – Worked his way through the Reds system, reaching AAA Louisville for the first time this season while also seeing time in Advanced-A and AA.  Between the three levels, he struck out 75 and walked 18 while giving up 69 hits in 72 innings pitched on the way to a 2.62 ERA.

16 650 TEX Erik Davis rhp Stanford CA- Did Not Sign

17 651 HOU Kyle Miller c Central Florida CC FL – Done after hitting .213/.260/.340 in 32 games last year for Lexington in the SAL.

18 652 STL Brian Broderick rhp Grand Canyon (Ariz.) AZ – Despite a 2.77 ERA in 17 games over 100.2 innings at AA this year, he struck out just 55.

19 653 PHI Adam Sorgi 2b Stanford CA- Out of baseball after hitting .198/.284/.231 in 35 games in the NYP in 2007.

20 654 BOS Aaron Reza ss Oklahoma OK- Reached advanced-A in 2008 and 2009, but was out of professional baseball in 2010 after hitting .208/.270/.256 in 35 games with Salem in 2009.

21 655 TOR Cody Dunbar rhp Texas Christian TX- Did Not Sign

22 656 LAD John Doyle rhp Boston College MA- Did Not Sign

23 657 SD Tyler Davis rhp Hawaii HI – Ran up an 8.44 ERA in 10 games in the Independent Frontier League in 2010.   Never made it past the Midwest League.

24 658 LAA Justin Bass 2b Clements HS, Sugar Land, Texas TX- Reached the Midwest League for the first time in 2010 at the age of 21 where he hit .251/.303/.33 in 110 games.

25 659 CWS Mitchell Delaney 1b St. Thomas of Villanova HS, LaSalle, Ontario ON – Did Not Sign

26 660 OAK Stephen Porlier rhp Oklahoma OK – Did Not Sign

27 661 DET Kyle Brule rhp Marcos de Niza HS, Tempe, Ariz. AZ – Did Not Sign

28 662 MIN Ozzie Lewis of Fresno State CA – Hit .300/.358/.440 at age 24 in the advanced-A Carolina League with Winston-Salem in 2010.

29 663 NYM Dillon Gee rhp Texas-Arlington TX- MLB

30 664 NYY Justin Snyder 2b San Diego CA – spent most of the 2010 season year with AA Trenton where he hit .245/.365/.345 in 319 PA over 90 games.  Added six at-bats at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

You have not written anything about Gee over his last two starts against what you would call  ”real” major league lineups!  The best era logged in first 4 mlb starts by a Mets pitcher since 1995 and you don’t have anything to say??  Why??  You owe this kid an apology for your lack of being a prognosticator!!  You need to look beyond the stat line.  Go back and look at the film of him being a pitcher.  Keeping the mlb bats guessing by not throwing what they would normally look for even in a hitters count.  Plus, he sets them up.  He undisputedly (sic), has had successin 4 quality starts at the mlb level.  So, suck up your pride and tell
everyone you were wrong when you said it would be ugly or you didn’t believe it would go well.

Couple things here.
1. Four starts is a really silly way to do analysis, but I’ll bite.  And no, I won’t be apologizing.
2. As Matt wrote yesterday: “Gee is the first pitcher to make his major-league debut for the Mets and post an ERA of 2.00 or lower over his first four starts with the club since Robert Person posted an identical record and ERA in his first four starts in the majors, spanning the 1995 and 1996 seasons.”
3. To be blunt, Robert Person was not a very good pitcher.  He was a back end guy who had his moments and lasted parts of eight seasons in the big leagues with a career record of 51-42 with a 4.64 ERA, 4.82 FIP and 5.69 FIP.  The point is, anyone, even rookies, even rookies who don’t project to be stars, can have a few good starts in a row.
4. On December 20, 1996, the Mets made one of their best trades in team history, shipping Person to the Toronto Blue Jays for John Olerud and cash.  He pitched two years with the Blue Jays before they shipped him to the Phillies.  He had his best season as a Philly in 2000 when he made 28 starts and set career bests with 8.5 K/9, 3.63 ERA (minimum 20 IP), and 3.5 WAR.  He ok in 2001 putting up a 1.8 WAR and a 4.19 ERA in 33 starts with the Phillies but nothing special.  After 11.2 innings and a 7.71 ERA with the Red Sox in 2003, Person was out of baseball.
5. As for Gee himself, yes, he’s been better than I expected.  Really, no one could have expected him to put up a 2.00 ERA with six runs allowed total in his first 27 Major League innings.  And here’s the important point, he has not pitched as well as his 2.00 ERA might suggest.  His peripherals just don’t support anything close to this level of performance.  He has a FIP of 4.28 and an XFIP of 5.04.  He’s walked 12 and struck out 15.  His BABIP is .207.  His LOB% is 88.2%.
If you’re new around here, what do all of those numbers mean?
—-FIP is Fangraphs Fielding Independent Pitching that adjusts for park and league and is scaled to look like ERA.  It includes only walks, home runs, HBP and strikeouts.
—-Since home run rates are a function of flyball rates, XFIP uses fly-ball rate, which is more stable year-to-year instead of pure home run rate, which fluctuates.  In Gee’s case, he has a HR/FB% of 5.9% instead of the league average of 10.6%.  In AAA this year, Gee’s HR/FB% was 12.4% (per minorleaguesplits.com).  When his HR/FB% regresses back toward normal, his ERA will rise back towards his FIP and his xFIP.
— BABIP usually rests around .300.  Gee’s is .207.  That too will rise.
— LOB% averages 72% and all but the most elite pitchers, who allow the fewest baserunners, show little ability to control LOB%.  This too will normalize.
6. So lets say that Citi Field’s spacious dimensions help Dillon Gee keep his HR/FB% a little bit both below his AAA rate and below normal and allow him to outperform his xFIP consistently.  We’re looking at a guy who should have an ERA around 4.50.
7. The bottom line.  Depending on what else happens this off-season, Dillon Gee will most likely go to Spring Training with a shot to win a job at the back of the Mets big league rotation.  He could turn into back end starter, which is essentially the pitcher his peripherals say he is now, but I don’t think he’ll be better than that.
8.  So no, no apologies from me.

We’ll start at the top, where Dillon Gee, was named the Sterling Award Winner for AAA Buffalo.  How bitter sweet an award must that be?  This is the “Hey, man, you were really good, but not good enough to get a call-up before September” award.

Gee, who’s been outstanding his two big league starts finished AAA with a much more ordinary 4.96, but set a new Bisons’ single-season record with 165 strikeouts.  He missed the final half of the 2009 season with shoulder problems, rehabbed instead of turning to surgery, and returned strong in 2010.  He was durable,  tying for the International League in starts (28)  and finishing third in innings pitched (162.2), while leading the circuit in strikeouts.  His K/9 of 9.20 was second in the IL behind only Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson.  He was also was second in HR allowed (23) and led the league in HBP (13).  Leading any minor league, but especially AAA in counting stats is a slightly dubious honor, the player was good enough to succeed at the level without moving up.

I think I’ve written about Gee a lot recently.  Earlier this week, I pointed out that pitchers’ with Gee’s velocity around 90 mph, have a wide range, but even among those who make enough starts to qualify for the league leaderboard, it’s a below average group.  Towards the end of his AAA season, I expressed concern and more concern about Gee’s home run rate.  For me, in the minors its that I think think that Gee will give up home runs at exactly the same rate as he did in AAA.  It’s that if he is giving up that much solid contact to AAA hitters, he’ll also give up more hard-hit balls when facing MLB hitters, who are even better.

I’m looking forward to seeing Gee pitch more this month.  I think he has a chance to stick at the back end of a big league rotation, but as a 21st round draft pick, he’s overcome some major odds just to reach the big leagues.

- There is precedent for this in Gee’s season: he began 2010 by shutting out the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees for 13 over two two consecutive starts.  In those 13 innings he struck out 12 and walked one.

- In Gee’s 13 MLB innings against the Pirates and Nationals: 7 walks and 7 strikeouts.

- He’s faced two below average offenses, one dreadful and one somewhere in pretty bad-range.  The Pirates are second-to-last in MLB in Baseball Prospectus’ True Average at .244, better only than the Mariners, while the Nationals are 17th at .261.  According to Fangraphs, measuring Batting Runs Above Average, agrees on both counts, placing the Pirates better only than the Mariners, an amazing -99.8 below average, but thinks the Nationals at -22.7 are 21st in baseball.

- His BABIP through two starts: .153 (6 H/39 AB).

- The question is not whether Gee will regress, the question is how far he will regress.
- I think his ceiling is as a back-end starting pitcher.  That’s nothing to scoff at.  But why?  Pretty simple.  His fastball sat at 89 miles per hour on Monday night.  According to Gameday, he hit 91 five times, four times in the first inning and once in the third.  He threw 90 fifteen other times, just five times after the third inning.  Here is Gee’s fastball speed by inning.

- There are 24 right-handed pitchers in Major League Baseball with enough innings to qualify for the league leader boards with an average fastball below 91 mph.  Here they are:

This is a biased group: to accumulate the number of innings to count as qualified, a guy must be doing something to pick up all the opportunity to pitch.  He could actually be pretty good (Weaver, Myers, Fister, Haren), or have been pretty good in the past (Lowe, Arroyo), or have a big money contract, or be young and cheap (Wells, Cahill) or be some combination of these.
I confess to being surprised to see Bonderman on this list.  He averaged 92+ in each of his first five seasons from ’03-07, but his velocity has not been the same since, and apparently, I haven’t watched a lot of regular season Detroit Tigers baseball.

Lets toss out the extremes on the low end of the velo scale like Livan and Bush, and establish a cutoff of an average of 90 mph on the top end to focus in on guys whose velocity is actually similar to Gee’s.
Now we’re dealing with 13 pitchers, now ranked instead of by fastball velocity, by 2010 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which calculates a pitcher’s value based only on walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed and is scaled to match ERA, which in the big leagues this year has a 4.10 average.  By FIP five of these guys are average or better, and eight are below.
This is the group that Gee hopes to join.

The best pitcher overall in this group is Jared Weaver.  He throws four pitches and all have positive run values.  Brett Myers is enjoying his best year, but according to friend of the site Josh Smolow, has actually improved as a pitcher and could pitch to his FIP moving forward.

The enormous problem here is with the sample selection.  By looking only at qualified pitchers, I’m skimming hard off the top.  Most right-handers who average 89, don’t stick as big league starters.  We’re looking at the best of the group.  The cause for optimism is that obviously, there are some pitchers in this sample who have pitched for a long time, have contributed to winning teams and even world Series Championship teams.  Garland was the third-best pitcher, by WAR on the 2005 White Sox while Arroyo was the third-best pitcher on the 2004 Red Sox.  The cause for pessimism is that this is a fairly heterogeneous group and again, by selecting only qualified guys, I’m just ignoring the guys who don’t make it.

Can Gee be a back-end starter on a championship caliber team?  He’ll need to keep throwing strikes.  In his first two starts, he’s thrown strikes with 58% of his pitches, a mark below the big league average.  Other major red flags include the number of home runs he allowed in AAA, and the 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio in his first two MLB starts.

Two good starts in September against bad teams does not make a career, or even prove that Gee deserves a rotation spot in 2011.  If he stays in the rotation, and takes every fifth start, his next two starts will be against the Braves and Phillies, teams with real offenses.  Those two starts just got a lot more interesting, yes?

By the way, Gee was a 21st round pick in the 2007 draft, and that alone makes him a major success story already.    The only other members of the Mets ’07 draft class to see big league time: Eddie Kunz (13.50 ERA, 2.2 IP) and Lucas Duda (.034/.152/.069 in 33 PA).

How good can Gee be?  We still don’t know until he 1. pitches against at least an average MLB offense and 2. most importantly, keeps pitching.

The Bisons were mathematically eliminated in front of a serious crowd of 15,539 in their home finale.
Dillon Gee (13-8, 4.96) was not good: 4 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP.  Explain to me why a guy with an ERA pushing five in AAA deserves a shot in the big leagues, or could help in the big leagues?

AA: @ Portland Sea Dogs 5, Binghamton Mets 3
2B Jordany Valdespin (.234/.240/.309) was 2-5 with a double from the leadoff spot but committed his seventh error in 23 games.
1B Josh Satin was 2-3 with a walk.

Eddie Kunz (7-8, 5.19) started and was not good: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

A+: Bradenton Marauders 9, @ St. Lucie Mets 4
After giving up four runs in the first two innings, Jeurys Familia (6-9, 5.58) sailed through the third-fifth innings, retiring ten men in a row before running out of gas and allowing three singles and a walk to start the sixth.  All three runners he bequeathed to Pedro P. Martinez scored.  Familia’s final line (5 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, HBP) doesn’t look great, but trying to push him through the sixth in the name of development is a worthy goal.  Since the calender turned to August, the 20-year old has struck out 59 and walked 14 in 41.2 innings pitched.  This is a pitcher who made a tremendous amount of progress in the second half of 2010.
RF Rafael Fernandez was 2-4 with a pair of doubles.  After an unimpressive .253/.309/.360 in Savannah, the 22-year old has started to deliver on his tools in St. Lucie, hitting .305/.338/.453 in 56 games in the FSL.  As more than one scout has said of Fernandez, “he looks good in uniform.”  The left-handed hitting Fernandez is slugging .595 in 42 AB against southpaws in the FSL against .412 vs. righties in 148 AB.  Color me surprised, impressed and a little wary of the small sample size on the L/R split.

A: Savannah Sand Gnats 12, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 2
RHP Armando Rodriguez (8-9, 3.08): 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.  In his last five starts, Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 0.93 ERA (3 ER/29 IP) and 45 strikeouts against five walks.  This is what happens when you learn to throw a slider for a strike in the South Atlantic League.  He should start game one in the playoffs for the Gnats on Wednesday.
The Gnats offense is suddenly a monster pounding out 44 runs in the four games in Greensboro.
3B Aderlin Rodriguez lifted his first SAL home run, a three-run shot in the fourth inning that made the score 9-0.  He’s hit safely in his first four games and driven home 10 in those four.
C Juan Torres (.225/.270/.333) was 5-5 with his second home run in as many nights.  The 21-year old Torres has a little bit of pop from his strength, but swings at everything with just four walks and 22 strikeouts in 138 AB with Savannah.

Rodriguez photo courtesy Savannah Sand Gnats.

We’ll start with Dillon Gee (13-7, 4.87): 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 3 HR.
I was watching this one not on SNY, but on MiLB.tv running the SNY feed.  MiLB.tv, because it’s encrypted with windows media, makes it just barely worth it on a mac, but I was disappointed there was no radar gun on Gee all night.   Generally he located well, with a fastball that the Buffalo broadcasters described as topping out at 91.  That, and the types of swings he was getting, suggests he wasn’t above 89-90 mph most of the night.  He used his changeup and curveball.  It’s tough to be too precise commenting on pitches while watching in a few inch-square box.  However, the curve, which he didn’t use that much, stuck out to me as an improved offering.

And then there were the three home runs.  When he made a mistake, it was up, and the Paw Sox crushed it.  Josh Reddick’s second home run was a bomb; it cleared Heron’s Landing in right field in Buffalo.
Here’s the pitch.  Fastball.  Up.

I didn’t see the third home run because the broadcast was gushing on a stumbling play made by Russ Adams at second base.

If you want to believe that Gee can help an MLB staff, I’m not here to convince you otherwise this morning, but:
- his ERA is pushing 5 in AAA
- and the home runs are a major concern.
— Hitters are better and more powerful at the MLB level. If AAA hitters are punching it over the wall with regularity, what happens against the best in the world?

LF Lucas Duda was 2-3 with a double, an RBI and two walks.  Adding his AA and AAA work, he’s sitting at .307/.394/.643 with 36 doubles and 23 homers.  Matt Eddy at Baseball America did a really good piece on Duda on Monday.  Duda explains that a broken wrist as a freshman in 2005, kept him from hitting for power in college:

“After that, it was tough to get to the inside pitch,” he said, “So that’s when my opposite-field hitting approach came into to play. I just wasn’t able to pull the inside pitch. I didn’t have the quickness inside.”

Now, though, he’s ripping everything:

“He doesn’t get cheated up there,” Columbus manager Mike Sarbaugh said. “But at the same time, he’s got a good swing, and he covers the plate.”

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis was 1-5 with a double and 2 RBI and a strange error in center.
RF Russ Adams homered twice and drove home four.
SNY also showed the video of 2B Justin Turner hurting his knee on Sunday.  His looked like he lost his footing on the wet grass before tumbling and straining his knee – it didn’t look fun.