A+: @ St. Lucie Mets 4, Bradenton Marauders 1

Jenrry Mejia’s second start of 2012 in his comeback from Tommy John Surgery was marred only by a home run by former Mets farmhand Stefan Welch. Mejia’s line: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 9 ground outs, 1 fly out.

Back when he was rehabbing from his strained shoulder in August of 2010, he had a similarly dominating start on in the Florida State League August 2, fanning seven without issuing a walk in four innings. The real test for Mejia will be his next few outings against upper level competition.

CF Cesar Puello (.286/.333/.446 – 29 games) lifted his first home run of the year in a 1-for-4 night. He’s behind last year’s home run pace, but his overall extra-base hit rate of 11.6% in 2012 is up over his 7.4% rate in 2011.

2B Danny Muno (.292/.350/.479 – 36 games) was 2-for-3 with a walk and a double.

A: Savannah Sand Gnats 6, @ Charleston River Dogs 4 (10 innings)

RHP Rafael Montero: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. According to the River Dogs’ gameday, he threw strikes with 73% of his pitches (66 of 91). He’s walked just four batters in 38.1 IP a rate of 2.6% or 0.94 BB/9. That’s an amazing number, leads the SAL by a significant margin.

3B Aderlin Rodriguez was 4-for-5, with four singles, to lift his season line to .214/.278/.351. It was the first game with more than two hits in 2012 for the 20-year old.

23 year old SS/2B TJ Rivera was 2-5 to up his season tally to .365/.457/.540 in 35 games, but committed his team-leading ninth error of the year.

A+: @ St. Lucie Mets 4, Brevard County Manatees 2

Jenrry Mejia made his first appearance in a game where they kept an accurate box score since April 29, 2011 with Buffalo. His line: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. He allowed a single run in the first and third inning before retiring the final eight batters in a row. He induced eight ground ball outs and gave up five air outs. It was certainly an encouraging return. He was transferred to St. Lucie earlier in the day, so the Mets have can be flexible with his next assignment, whether it’s another start in the FSL before a return to Buffalo.

After three scoreless innings from Angel Cuan, Adrian Rosario fanned two and walked on in the 9th. That’s 21 strikeouts against four walks in 16 innings for Rosario who I was told recently I’m told by a Mets official is throwing a “plus fastball, in the low to mid-90s,” “a hard slider” and a “nice changeup that bottoms out of the zone.” That sounds like a nice mix that should earn the 22-year old a trip to double-A fairly soon.

CF Cesar Puello was 2-for-4 with a triple, his second of the year. The 21-year old is hitting .289/.337/.412 in 25 games this year.

Jenrry Mejia is scheduled to return to game action on a 75 pitch count in the Florida State League today says Adam Rubin at ESPNNY.

In the Daily News, Andy Martino quotes a “high-ranking team official” as saying: ““A lot of people might forget about Mejia,” said one high-ranking team official. “But he is progressing very well, and he could be in position to make a start for us before long.”

Hang on a second here. Mejia’s AAA performance in 2011 did not suggest he was ready to contribute at the MLB level. He has made just six starts in AAA, five of which were early last year. In 2011, while his ERA was an aesthetically pleasing 2.86, his peripherals were not. He was walking 4.4 batters per nine innings in his 28 innings in Buffalo with a K/BB ratio of 1.5. Were his control issues the symptom of a damaged elbow or were they a young pitcher struggling to throw strikes against tough, patient AAA hitters?

As with all of the other pitching prospects in the system, his own performance will dictate his assignment. Mejia is no different. The Mets could use a starter, but Mejia has to earn the spot in the next month. The Florida State League is a good first step, but it’s a long way from Queens.

They’re playing a morning game in St. Lucie, and Mejia has given up a run on three hits through two innings. Box.

Jenrry Mejia, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2011, threw two innings in an extended Spring Training game this week. He’s on a regular five-day program for starting pitchers. Barring any setbacks, he will continue to stretch out his arm and extend his outings. How his body responds over the final steps of his rehab will determine his schedule.

Reese Havens has been playing all nine innings in extended spring training games for the Mets, and has been doing so for about a week and a half.

- Brant Rustich told Mack’s Mets that he is retiring.

My arm just cannot withstand the workload to pitch at this level. The more I throw, the more the nerves continue to flare in my arm causing pain, numbness and fatigue. My own understanding from years of experience with this injury, I felt it was time to move on in my life and retire from baseball.

The Mets paid Rustich $373,500 to sign as their second pick of the second round in the 2007 draft out of UCLA, but he was rarely healthy as a professional. He did not pitch in as many as 50 innings in any season as a professional, and missed all of 2011. Since he was drafted, Rustich was diagnosed with: a stress fracture, a small labrum tear in his shoulder, damaged to his ulner collateral ligament in his elbow, a second stress fracture, and thoracic outlet syndrome which resulted in a surgery to remove a piece of rib and muscle that was causing numbness in his arm.

I ranked Rustich as the #13 prospect in the system in February 2009, and at #29 in February 2010.

By the way, the Mets first 10 picks in 2007 were: Eddie Kunz, Nathan Vineyard, Scott Moviel, Rustich, Eric Niesen, Stephen Clyne, Richard Lucas, Zach Lutz, Guillaume Leduc, and Lucas Duda.

Duda, drafted in the 8th round, and Dillon Gee, in the 21st might save that class.

- Andy McCullough writes about Jenrry Mejia, and his surgically repaired elbow for Baseball America.

“Sometimes I feel tight. Sometimes I feel good. That’s the situation.”

Ironically, McCullough included a promising-sounding note about Rustich returning to the mound in February.

Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’0, 205 lbs
Acquired: NDFA (4/4/07)
Born:  10/11/89 (Tabara Arriba, Azua, DR)
2011 Rank: #1

Why Ranked Here: Mejia made just five starts before he was diagnosed with a torn ulner collateral ligament and headed in for Tommy John Surgery in May.  It was clear from video of his starts leading up to the diagnosis that his elbow was bothering him for at least his final two starts for triple-A Buffalo. The picture at right is a screengrab from his second-to-last start of Mejia looking down at his elbow.

Although Mejia is now throwing, do not expect him back in competitive games at triple-A until May, or so. The recovery period from Tommy John surgery is generally described as 11-18 months, but it has been my observation that younger pitchers seem to take a little longer (see also: Steven Matz. This is not backed up by a full study, but could be construed as a research challenge.)

Here’s what I wrote a year ago.

“Mejia’s arsenal starts with a special plus cut fastball that sits in the mid 90s.  Mejia complements the cutter with a more conventional, straighter four-seamer, and a two-seam fastball a few miles per hours slower with a little sink.  Commanding his fastball arsenal with precision would probably be enough for Mejia to survive and even thrive in a relief role.  His hard changeup which sinks almost like a splitter is his second pitch.   His hard-curveball is his third [pitch].  Ever since I first saw him in Brooklyn he’s struggled to find a consistent release point on his breaking ball….

Mejia still must improve his command with all of his pitches to be fully big league ready.”

Lets follow up on that last line.  Note too that elbow injuries often manifest themselves first through a loss of command. Even so, the comment is important. His K/BB ratio in Buffalo last year was just 1.5 in five starts last year.  He walked 12.4% of the batters he faced. Again, if he doesn’t learn to improve his command, his future will be out of the bullpen.

Also from last year:

Coaches have been raving about Mejia’s work ethic and intelligence for years now.  That hasn’t stopped.

2011: TJ. That stinks.

Dr. Pangloss Says: A very fine MLB starter.

Debbie Downer Says:  A useful bullpen piece.

Projected 2012 Start: AAA Buffalo DL.  Then eventually Buffalo itself

MLB Arrival:  2010. He could well be back in the big leagues by mid-late summer.

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And we wrap up my mid-season(ish) look at my pre-season Top 41 prospects in the system with this one.  There.  I’m a completist.  It’s done.

I don’t want to come off as negative about this group.   Mejia and Nieuwenhuis were on the right track until they’re seasons ended early with injuries.  Puello and Flores are still very young, and particularly Puello has shown serious growth in the second half.  For a top five prospect, the only way to improve your status is to be great, (as Harvey was in the FSL), or make an impact in the big leagues.  There’s still plenty to dream on here for Mets fans.

Part 7 on players ranked 6-10 is here.  Part 6 on players ranked 11-15 is here.  Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.

Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#1 – RHP Jenrry Mejia
What I thought: “Mejia has top of the rotation stuff, big league experience and will begin 2011 in Buffalo, just a few good starts and a MLB injury away from a return to the big leagues.”
Reality: Whoops, I didn’t mean an injury to Mejia.  After five pretty good starts in AAA, Mejia’s UCL gave way and he headed for Tommy John Surgery.  That’s too bad, and the timing means he’ll miss at least the first half of the 2012 minor league season, if not longer.  Mejia’s ERA outperformed his peripherals in AAA, but in part, that’s because his stuff has so much movement, it’s both hard to control and hard to hit.
Stock:  Down a little.  Look, he’ll miss much of the 2012 season.  As long as he recovers fully, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, he’ll be a big league piece of some kind by 2013.

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Advanced by Total Batters Faced

#2 – RHP Matt Harvey
What I thought: Harvey, the Mets top pick in the 2010 draft had big-time potential.
Reality: He has not disappointed.  He’s throwing hard, and making progress with his curveball and slider, although the changeup remains a distant fourth.  He’s had to improve his command, which remains a work in progress.  Ignore the AA ERA.  His fundamental rates in AA are nearly identical to advanced-A.
Also, he seems to be figuring out AA; his last three starts have been outstanding.
Stock:  Up.

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Advanced By Total Batters Faced

#3 – SS Wilmer Flores
What I thought: Despite questions about his eventual position and power, Flores was going to hit for average.
Reality: There are still questions about his position and power potential and he he’s hit for some average.  If you’re looking for things to make you think positively, he turns 20 this week, and doesn’t strike out.  Flores is basically the same player he was a year ago.  In a sense that’s a good thing, but at least by the numbers, it’s hard to pick out areas where he’s progressed in a real big way.  
Stock:  Down some.

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#4 – OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
What I thought: He was the most advanced position player on the list, had shown game power, speed and patience and played center.
Reality: Nieuwenhuis, who turns 24 on August 7, was off to a nice start with AAA Buffalo until shoulder injuries ended his season after 53 games, costing him big league time in 2011.  However, there were two nasty indicators in Nieuwenhuis’ time with Buffalo that call his ability to transition seamlessly into the big leagues into question: a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .407 BABIP.  I wanted to see what would happen with more time in AAA.  However, rather than making his big league debut this season, Nieuwenhuis is sitting on the disabled list.
Stock:  Down a touch.

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#5 – OF Cesar Puello
What I thought: I liked his power potential, that he had the speed and athleticism to play center and the way he made adjustments in the second half in Savannah.
Reality: The 20-year old suffered through a trying first half at (.239/.296/.347) where despite some gains in the power department, his plate discipline disappeared.
Oh, and then he got crazy hot, finishing July on a .382/.407/.764 run with 11 extra-base hits in his last 15 games.  The power seems to be here.  I’m reassured. If he can do it all the way through August, I’ll be really impressed and his stock might even be up.
Stock: Down, but not much.

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