Some prospecty links:

- Baseball America has started ranking prospects by position. Among right-handed starters, BA lists Zack Wheeler at #13, behind Carlos Martinez (Cardinals) and ahead of Brad Peacock (A’s). Matt Harvey is #17, behind Randall Delgado (Braves), Jarred Cosart (Astros) and ahead of Wily Peralta (Brewers).

BA has Jenrry Mejia at #13 among relievers citing his “high-effort delivery.”

- Adam Rubin explains why pitching prospects Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey aren’t being considered for the Opening Day roster. I suppose, “they aren’t ready,” doesn’t make much for much of a column.

I’m pretty excited for this intra-squad game today which has lots and lots of prospects.

In the meantime, here are a few links.

Adam Rubin of ESPNNY reports that Robert Carson has an intercostal strain. He received an injection. At best, this will set him back a few weeks. More about intercostal strains. Essentially, this kills any tiny chance he had of making the Mets out of spring training.

In the New York Times, Andrew Keh makes a tenuous connection between Steven Matz and Johan Santana. Surgery, shoulder, elbow, Cy Young Award winner, completely unproven talent – you get the idea.

At Amazin’ Avenue, Rob Castellano, got a few comments from Sandy Alderson and JP Riccardi about Mets prospects including Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Zach Lutz, Jordany Valdespin, Juan Lagares and Jeurys Familia.

- From Adam Rubin of ESPNNY after Terry Collins’ opening remarks yesterday:

Collins is eager to see solid-hitting second baseman Reese Havens, who was taken in the same first round as Davis in 2008. Havens … will work exclusively at second base in camp. Collins said once he gets to the minors to open the year he would be exposed to other positions, too.

Havens was a college shortstop at the University of South Carolina, before moving to second base early in his professional career because he lacked the range to play short everyday. Where will the Mets have him play? Third? First? That seems to be the default.  Patrick Flood had an amusing rant about the Mets’ defense yesterday on Twitter with the Mets slated to have four former 1B in their everyday lineup in 2012.

- At Amazin’ Avenue, Eno Sarris asks, Are the Mets truly Saber? It’s a worthwhile read, and promises to be the start of a series, and it quotes me, which makes it doubly good.

- At the Platoon Advantage, Chris St. John explores the relationship between prospects with extreme walk and strikeout rates at the lower levels and their (lack) of big league success. This too is the beginning of a series. So far the gentle conclusion is: strikeouts not good, walks pretty good.

- This is just damn funny. James Bates’ stool breaks, prompting him to say, “That’s not a big time stool.”

The guy who predicted Jeremy Lin could be a really good NBA player back in 2010 drives a truck at UPS. Seriously.

In Newsday, Jim Baumbach looks at the guy who improved Jeremy Lin’s jump shot in summer/fall 2011: Doc Scheppler who coaches girls basketball at Pinewood School in Los Altos, near Lin’s Bay Area home.

At Sports Illustrated, Neil Paine from Basketball Reference, crunches some numbers where Lin’s playmaking ability, ability to get to the rim and usage rates place him in elite company to start his career and argue against his being a fluke.

A look into the relationship between Jeremy Lin and his agent, the formerly unknown Roger Montgomery, who is based out of San Antonio on Spursnation.com.

The Onion: Knicks Doctors Continue Carefully Reinjuring Carmelo Anthony’s Groin

Tim Kawakami in the San Jose Mercury News writes about Jeremy Lin from the perspective of an Asian-American sportswriter.

The New York Times Magazine will run a piece this weekend titled, “How Companies Learn Your Secrets” roughly about humans, routines, and how companies analyze them to make money.  If you do sales, marketing (like nearly everyone in sports) or just are interested in the way humans think and make decisions, read this.  It’s long, but well worth it.

At the Bisons’ hot-stove dinner, Wally Backman told the good folks of Buffalo that although he would “fight” for top pitching prospects, he expects both Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey to start the season in double-A Binghamton.

At Baseball America, Andy McCullough talked to Paul DePodesta about Wilmer Flores. Again DePodesta emphasized Flores’ youth and hitting ability, but the money shot came at the end when it became clear the Mets will begin Flores’ transition away from shortstop:

He played mostly third base for Margarita, and Depodesta said he’ll spend time at the hot corner this season, while still playing shortstop on occasion.

“I expect Wilmer to probably play at least two different positions during the course of this year,” DePodesta said. “As time goes on, we’ll determine where he spends more time.”

By the way, good job by BA to start using McCullough to write their organizational reports to pick up from Steve Popper who’s now on the Knicks beat.

Self promo first: I’ve been updating the page with the links to my complete Top 41 Prospects series in case you’ve missed a few. 

Matt Harvey is in camp, and “doing the things I normally do..” he said. That, and worked on a sinker/two-seamer this off-season.

Cam Maron gets together with his hitting coach to demonstrate a Top Hand Progression on video.  This is a great introduction (and they’re promising a series) into teaching and learning hitting technique.

Adam Rubin does the Sean Ratliff update at ESPNNY. Ratliff says, “I’m still not completely sure that I’m going to be game-ready. It’s a matter of seeing live pitching and getting into game situations. But it’s closer than I thought it was going to be at this point, which is really good.”

Also, Rubin has an update on Steven Matz.  (He still exists, and his Tommy John rehab is done.)

Robert Carson talks to Petey of Metsmerized Online about the nerves of heading to his first MLB spring training, the “honor” of playing for Wally Backman, and his current size (big) and repertoire (fast).

At Fangraphs, Matt Swartz finds a big discrepancy in the amount teams pay for win.  Hint, defense is undervalued, and relievers are wildly overpriced. He uses this to begin a revealing but inconclusive study about whether GMs are overpaying relievers to save their own jobs.

As part of his 2014 Mets’ Power Rankings, Patrick Flood discusses the odds regarding Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler becoming good, or even useful major leaguers by comparing them to similar prospects, by ranking, of years past.

He compares the 50 pitchers who have ranked between #20 and #20 on Baseball America’s prospect list between 1998 and 2007 and found:

The average is 7.2 WAR per player. If we take these subgroups and combine them into three large groups:

• 40% were ultimately disappointments: middling relievers, sub-replacement starters, and the pitchers who never made it to the majors
• 32% became useful pitchers: setup men, closers, or Pelfreys
• 28% became good pitchers: aces, all stars, and quality starters

…That is to say that half the time, you end up with a single Pelfrey or worse.

The average career WAR is 2.5. If we take these sub-groups and put them together into three bigger groups:

• 61% were disappointments: Sub-replacement level pitchers, poor relievers, and the pitchers who never made it to the majors
• 31% become useful pitchers: Middling starters or decent relievers
• 8% become good pitchers: A top reliever or a good starting pitcher

In other words, 61% of pitching prospects similar to Jeurys Familia ultimately disappoint, either by never reaching the majors, having short careers, or by becoming middling relievers. 61% fail. 61%! The odds are against Familia amounting to anything.