I continue my review of my pre-season ranking of the Mets Top 41 prospects.  Part 1 (36-41) is here, while part 2 (31-35) is here.  This is a group where only the youngest player, Jeurys Familia, has improved his stock.

ALL STATS IN TABLES CURRENT AS OF JULY 1, 2009.

#26 SS Jose Coronado

Stock: down

Coronado began his age 23 season by contributing to the Mets disastrous start in Buffalo.  Returned to Binghamton, Coronado has increased his batting average from a year ago, but his walk rate has declined, while his strkeout rate has risen.  It’s probably not a good thing when his best offensive attribute is his bunting skill.  Can he be a big league utility guy?  Maybe.  Can he hit enough to play everyday?  Looking awfully doubtful.

#27 Jeurys Familia

Stock: Up

As a 19-year old in the SAL, Familia has upped his K/rate just a tick from his 2008 in the GCL.  A walk rate a shade above three batters per nine innings is fine here too.  He’s still far away, but doing just fine.

#28 RHP Stephen Clyne

Stock: Down

He walks more batters than he strikes out in AA.  In what world does that translate to MLB success?  To my eyes, both his fastball and his slider have regressed from last summer in Brooklyn to this summer in Binghamton.  Clyne was never more than a middle relief candidate, and now that looks like a big stretch.

#29 3B Shawn Bowman

Stock: down a little

The shame of the simple assessment of “down,” is that Shawn Bowman is a better baseball player in 2009 than he was in 2008.  His walk rate at AA has improved from execrable (2%) to simple bad (7%).  He’s hitting for a little more power.  However he’s still striking out in a quarter of his plate appearances and his improvements at age 24 don’t look like enough to be an MLB starter, certainly not with David Wright in front of him.  Maybe it’s time to grab an outfielders’ glove and see if he can learn to fill a four-corners utility role.  The problem with that plan is that his best feature is his defense at thirdbase.

#30 RHP Nick Carr

Stock: Down

The Mets are in basically the same place with Carr as they’ve been the last two years, waiting for him to throw some more strikes.  He’s got a big league arm with nice velocity on his fastball, but just doesn’t throw enough strikes with it.  The club moved him to the bullpen, where his ERA is better, but walk rate is even worse.

The Mets should not give up on Carr’s arm, but it’s getting harder to believe Carr will suddenly figure it out and throw enough strikes to be a big league pitcher.  At this point, he’s no more than a middle reliever.

Bats/Throws: S/R

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 215 lbs

Acquired: 3^rd rd 2007 (Clemson)

Born: 9/22/84 (Parkland, FL)

Why Ranked Here: Clyne flashes two average pitches – a fastball and a slider – out of the bullpen. His fastball was 89-93 for Brooklyn and the slider had average movement showing nice depth and tilt.

2008: Clyne began the year with St. Lucie where he posted ERAs above nine in April and May while fighting his own mechanics. He began to right himself in June and the early part of July before he was dispatched to Brooklyn where he had pitched in 2007. As Brooklyn’s closer, Clyne posted a ridiculously good 4.86 gb/fb ratio.

Dr. Pangloss Says: With his mechanical issues smoothed out, Clyne could move quickly to help the Mets bullpen.

On the Flipside: There is little projection in Clyne and much of his success has come in the NYP.

Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie bullpen, although a jump to Binghamton is a possibility too.

LHP Michael Antonini – R/L – 6’0” 190 – 18^th Rd ’07 – b. 8/6/85

Antonini had a great year, earning his promotions first to St. Lucie and then to Binghamton.

The night I saw him in Binghamton, Antonini worked off a fastball that was 87-91, but mostly 88/89. He commanded it to both sides of the plate. He faced a lineup with eight batters who hit from the right side and featured his changeup as his second pitch. It was inconsistent, without great movement and often elevated. He allowed a homerun on an elevated changeup at 83 mph. He was cautious about throwing his slider to the RHH, and with good reason, since it was a little sweeping.

Note that once Antonini reached AA, his homerun and walk rates spiked, while his strikeout rate was 6.3 K/9, the lowest of any of his three stops in 2008.

Likely 09 Start: AA

RHP Nicholas Carr – R/R – 6’0 200 lbs – 41^st Rd ’05 – b. 4/19/87

The Mets skipped Carr over the SAL straight from Brooklyn in 2007 to the Florida State League in 2008, and the results were simply ugly early. Through June 5, he was 0-7 with a 7.19 ERA, when the Mets sent him down to Savannah to get right. Life was a little better in the SAL, but he was forced back to the FSL in early July when the system was short on arms due to a number of injuries.

However, Carr finished 2008 by making his last two starts his best of the year. In his last 12 innings, Carr didn’t allow a run, gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out 13.

Carr still has a big-time arm. He throws 90-95 and was sitting at 92-93. However, in July in the FSL, he had only a slight idea where the ball was going when it left his hand. He threw his below average slider (~80 mph) and change (~84/85 mph) sparingly.

I’d suggest that Carr’s future is in the bullpen, but I’d like to see him repeat the FSL as a starter in 2009, and experience some success, and pick up more repetitions, before moving to AA.

Likely 09 Start: A+

Nick Carr Fastball

RHP Stephen Clyne – R/R – 6’2” 215 – 3^rd Rd 07 – b. 9/22/07

Clyne was the third college reliever the Mets picked in 2007, behind Eddie Kunz and Brant Rustich. Like Carr, Clyne was promoted directly from Brooklyn to St. Lucie, and like Carr, struggled early. Clyne gave up 25 runs in his first 20 innings in St. Lucie. However, he turned a corner in June yielding just five runs in his next 18 innings before being sent down to Brooklyn to help out the Cyclones.

Clyne is a potentially very good middle reliever. His fastball was 91-93 and scouts saw his slider as a potentially plus pitch.

I wrote about Clyne making a mechanical adjustment here.

Likely ’09 Start: A+, although with a strong spring, AA is not out of the question

RHP Dillon Gee – R/R – 6’1” 195 – 21^st rd ’07 – b. 4/28/86

Gee had a successful run in the Florida State League posting a great strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 5 (4.95). It’s worth pointing out that like Carr, Clyne and Owen, he jumped straight from Brooklyn to St. Lucie and thrived. However, I’m suspicious of pitchers who experience success at the advanced A level without fanning a batter an inning.

In July, Gee was throwing 89-91 with his fastball which he spotted reasonably well. I had heard reports of slightly better velo at other times. His second best pitch was a changeup with some nice run. His soft curve was his third pitch.

Likely 09 start: AA

RHP Dylan Owen – R/R – 5’11” 203 lbs – 20^th rd ‘07 – b. 7/12/86

Owen and Gee were back-to-back picks in 2007. In 2007, Owen led the NYP in wins and ERA while earning the team’s Sterling Award. Both pitchers hopped right from Brooklyn to the FSL. Like Gee, Owen had great success in the FSL by throwing lots of strikes with a superb K/BB rate (3.51). Unlike Gee, Owen’s first taste of AA did not go well.

Owen throws a fastball that’s mostly upper 80s, a slider and a changeup.

Likely 09 start: AA

RHP Tobi Stoner – S/R – 6’3” 203 – 16^th rd ’06 – b. 12/3/84

Another late round pick made good, Stoner found AA a whole lot tougher than A-ball. His K/BB rate declined from 5.33 to 2.03 as he moved up a level while his strikeout rate dropped from 8.31 K/9 to 6.72 K/9.

Likely 09 start: AA. AAA is a possibility as dictated by organizational need in spring training, but I view AA as the likelier scenario.

The Mets made two changes to their HWB delegation Tuesday. Ages in parentheses, RHP Junior Guerra (23) replaces RHP Stephen Clyne (24) and C Jordan Abruzzo (24) replaces C Francisco Pena (18).

The 5’11” 213 lb Guerra pitched over four levels in the system, spending most of his July with Savannah where he was 1-1 with two saves in 25.2 dominating IP. He gave up just 14 hits and two walks while punching out 34. Guerra didn’t give up a hit in his four innings at St. Lucie to conclude his season. I missed Guerra when I saw Savannah, but an AL scout told me that he liked Guerra a little bit as a relief prospect. After all, Guerra had thrown 93-95 mph the night before to go along with an 83 mph slider. A strong Hawaii showing could set up Guerra for an Opening Day assignment to Binghamton and a rapid rise through the system in 2009.

Abruzzo, who the Mets picked in the 13^th round in 2007, played at three levels in 2008 showing some power, and solid receiving abilities to go with an aggressive approach. Like Guerra, his Hawaii assignment should prepare him to start 2009 in Binghamton. Unlike Guerra, Abruzzo is not a candidate for a subsequent rapid ascension.

Abruzzo began his first full professional season by hitting his way out of Savannah (.300/.347/.448) in 54 games, earning a mid-June promotion to St. Lucie. With the Gnats, Abruzzo walked just 13 times and struck out 36 in 203 AB. Installed in the middle of the St. Lucie batting order, Abruzzo hit .303/.333/.455 in 19 games. In 66 AB, he walked twice and struck out seven times with six extra base hits. Dropped down to Brooklyn on July 12^th, Abruzzo put up his weakest line of his tri-part season as a Cyclone going .275/.309/.440 in 49 games. He celebrated his 24^th birthday on August 2^nd by going 0-4 against Staten Island. Abruzzo is what he is at this point: a catcher with a little pop and receiving abilities that will keep him employed for the foreseeable future. Catchers never, ever go away, because finding an MLB caliber defender is so hard.

Stephen Clyne was the third college reliever the Mets drafted in 2007, behind Eddie Kunz and Brant Rustich. The theory was that one or all of the hard throwing hurlers would ascend rapidly through the system and be ready to help fill middle relief roles in short order. Clyne had an encouraging debut in Brooklyn in 2007, striking out 30 in 26 innings, but walking 19. When I talked to a scout in August of 2007 who had seen the Cyclones, he liked Clyne as much as the other two, praising both his hard sinker and slider.

Coming into the season, Baseball America ranked Clyne as the Mets 13^th best prospect suggesting that “if he comes out throwing strikes in 2008, Clyne could speed through the system.” He hasn’t thrown enough strikes and thus hasn’t sped through the system. More alarming perhaps was that he experienced a significant dip in velocity. Now back in Brooklyn, Clyne thinks he’s discovered part of the answer.

With the Brooklyn coaching staff, he compared video in 2007 with 2008 and noticed a change in his set position. In 2008, he had raised his hands as demonstrated in the pictures below.

Low Hands (07, Good)	High Hands (08, Bad)

What impact did this have on the rest of his pitching motion? When a pitcher, like Clyne, starts with his hands higher, his arm must travel down further, creating a longer distance before he can release the ball. There’s nothing wrong with this for guys with the tempo in their delivery and armspeed to make such an arrangement work. However, Clyne felt that from the higher hand position, he was rushing his arm stroke in the back, artificially shortening it, as illustrated below. Notice on the left that his right hand is nearly even with his right hip. On the right, his hand is 1. in front of his body, and 2. closer to nipple level than hip level. This shortening sapped his fastball of velocity and movement.

Full Arm Stroke (Good)	Abbreviated Arm Stroke (Bad)

Pitching from a set position with his hands lower on Monday night, Clyne was dialing his sinker up to 92-93 with nasty movement. Brooklyn manager Edgar Alfonzo said of Clyne’s performance on Monday, “that’s the way he pitched last year,” a fact that made the skipper “happy.”

Clyne concurred, saying of himself on Monday, “I was the regular Stephen and it felt pretty good.”