Spring Training
Last week, the Mets extended spring training invites to 11 players including Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis.  Mejia has clearly passed Brad Holt in the organization’s estimation: it was Mejia who went to the AFL and Mejia who earns the training camp nod.  I would not be surprised to see Davis in the big leagues in this summer, so his invite is hardly a surprise.  The Mets also invited RHP Carlos Muniz, LHP Eric Niesen, SS Ruben Tejada and CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis to camp.  Both Tejada and Niesen were sent to the AFL as well.  I expect both to start at AAA, but it’s nice recognition for both.  Nieuwenhuis missed out on the fall league, but coming off his ridiculous August in St. Lucie, will have a lot of eyes on him before likely heading to AA Binghamton to begin the season.

I admit to sorta forgetting about Muniz.  After his MLB debut in 2008, he threw just 19.2 ineffective innings for Buffalo before hitting the DL at the end of May on the same day as Dillon Gee.  With a strong camp, Muniz could push his way into consideration for the back of the ‘pen.

The only surprise among the invites was C Francisco Pena.  Pena hit just .224/.258/.329 with eight home runs for St. Lucie last year as a 19-year old.  I still don’t think this means Pena’s headed for AA to start the year, but perhaps seeing the big leaguers at work will be good for Pena.  Josh Thole talked a lot last year about how valuable to his defensive development he found his time at MLB camp.
New Guys
The Mets also signed LHP Bobby Livingston, LHP Travis Blackley, INF Jolbert Cabrera and Luis Hernandez to minor league deals with Spring Training invites.
Livingston, a former top prospect for the Mariners made nine starts for AA Akron in the Indians system last year.  In 56.1 IP, he owned a 5.59 ERA and fanned 23 and walked 11.  He’s not a better fit for the ‘pen than Adam Bostick who will be going to spring training with Kansas City.
The 27-year old Blackly put up a 4.85 ERA for the Diamondbacks’ AAA Reno Aces last year with 101 strikeouts against 38 walks in 111.1 IP.  He made his MLB debut for San Francisco in 2007, pitching an ineffective 8.2 innings.
The 37-year old Cabrera hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2004.  He had a very good year for Buffalo in 1998, and could belong with the Bisons as a backup infielder, but coming off a .262/.298/.401 performance in Norfolk last year, maybe it’s time to consider coaching.

St. Lucie

Yesterday, the St. Lucie Mets announced that Edgar Alfonzo will manage the team in 2010, taking over for Tim Teufel, who has been promoted to AA Binghamton.  Fonzie was in Savannah last year where he guided the Gnats to a 65-72 record, the team’s best mark in their three years as a Mets affiliate.  Alfonzo began his managerial career with Kingsport in 2000, and guided the Brooklyn Cyclones to a New York-Penn League co-championship in 2001.  Alfonzo then spent two years as a coach, first for St. Lucie in 2002 and for Binghamton in 2003, before becoming the Mets Minor League Infield Coordinator for thee years.  He returned to Brooklyn in 2008.  Alfonzo is probably best known as the big brother of former Met Edgardo Alfonzo.

St. Lucie’s hitting coach will be George Greer, whose 2009 St. Lucie offense led the league in total bases, home runs and slugging percentage.  Phil Regan will also return for his second season as St. Lucie’s pitching coach.

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Mike Newman at Scoutingthesally.com recently posted some video of Mets SS prospect Wilmer Flores’ swing. I’ve broken it down. Here’s what catches my eye, based on the video I’ve seen.

Wilmer Flores Swing Breakdown

Lower Body
Flores starts with a slightly open and upright stance. During his load, there is minimal movement in his hips, which means he does not use his bottom half at all. His stride to the ball is very small so he gets his front foot down very quickly. With this minimal lower body movement, he maintains good balance throughout the swing. Without a large loading of the bottom half, Flores uses no backside in his swing, and is does not generate any power from his lower half.

Upper Body
Flores starts his hands slightly above ear level, and then pushes his hands back into his load position. Instead of his hands (the knob of the bat) driving straight to the ball, Flores’ hands dip slightly, creating a drag of the barrel to the baseball. With this movement, Flores would be susceptible to good fastballs on the inner half and above his waist, and would also produce unwanted fly balls. The drag of the barrel to the baseball causes the barrel to be late to point of contact, and less bat speed. When the hands dip, the barrel also dips, thus causing the bat head to drop below the baseball, resulting in fly-balls. On a good note, Flores does a good job of keeping his hands inside the baseball, which would allow him to use the whole field.

Conclusion
Flores seems to feel for the ball, relying on his hand eye coordination, while not utilizing his lower half at all. His approach looked like he was just trying to not fail, while showing no aggressiveness which would indicate a lack of confidence at the plate. Flores must learn how to incorporate his lower half and make the knob of the bat take a direct line to the baseball. By learning to use his lower half, Flores will begin to unleash some of his power potential.

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Bats/Throws: L/L

Height/Weight: 5’10”/180 lbs

Acquired: 21^st rd ’08 (Southern Connecticut State)

Born: 6/1/87

Why Ranked Here: Fuller has an average fastball from the left side, that when I saw him this summer was mostly 88-90 and touched 91.  He’s competitive, and even on nights when he didn’t have his best stuff, or his best command, he found a way to succeed.  Fuller’s second offering was a slurvy curveball with slightly above average velocity in the 75 mph range, that he can work up to 78.  His changeup at 78 mph could not fool NYP League hitters.

2009: After working out of the Brooklyn Cyclones bullpen in an injury-shortened 2008, the Mets returned Fuller to the New York-Penn League as a starter in 2009.  Fuller stayed healthy, which was a step forward for him.  He also handled NYP league batters as his he posted a K/BB ratio above four and more than a strikeout an inning, but a 22-year old repeating the league should be able to do that if he’s going to make a career out of professional baseball.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Fuller could wind up in a big league bullpen as a LOOGY.

On the Flipside: Fuller was already 22 in 2009, and is a max effort guy whose mechanical issues will prevent him from throwing enough quality strikes to succeed past AA.

Projected 2010 Start: St. Lucie bullpen or Savannah rotation

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Methodology

Players are ranked on the expected value they can provide as major-league players, with extra weight given to those players for whom stardom is a possibility.  Expected value is an economic concept that multiplies the value of a specific outcome by the probability that that outcome will be reached.  Under this formulation, both a player’s expected ceiling and the probability that he reaches that ceiling is important. Moreover, a player’s value at the low end outcome matters too.  The simple reality is that the vast majority of minor leaguers never turn into productive MLB players, and players who look like they can provide some value, even on the downside of their projection, have that factored in.

Also, my rankings are based on everything I know about a player.  This includes, but is not limited to: what I’ve seen with my own eyes, what I’ve been told by scouts and Mets people, things I’ve read (adjusting the weight I give it by the amount I trust the author/source), a player’s pedigree, and the stats.   Different factors are more important for different players.  Stats become more important as a player moves up through the system, but mean relatively little for rookie level guys.

Eligibility Rules

To be eligible for this list, a player must qualify as a rookie in 2010.

One more twist: a player must be expected to play in the domestic stateside league in 2010. This essentially eliminates all players from the DSL and the VSL, who might encounter visa problems before continuing their professional careers in the United States.

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Flores

Mike Newman does typically strong work breaking down Wilmer Flores at www.scoutingthesally.com (now with video!).  In my opinion, Flores is a classic Mets prospect.  Like every prospect in baseball, he has strengths and weaknesses, but because he’s a Mets farmhand, everything, good and bad about his game, has been exaggerated by the hype.  So, the good, according to Newman is:

With explosive wrists and excellent hand-eye coordination, Flores has barely scratched the surface in terms of offensive development. At his peak, Flores showed the ability to pepper line drives to all fields with a knack for staying back on breaking balls.

And the bad:

At present, Flores’ hitting mechanics can be downright messy.

The same good news, bad news dynamic is in play defensively too: Flores doesn’t have the speed for short, but has good enough hands to stay on the infield.

B-Mets Staff

The Binghamton Mets released their 2010 coaching staff Monday.  Joining manager Tim Teuffel will be Pitching Coach Mark Brewer and Hitting Coach Luis Natera.  This is a return, both to the Mets and Binghamton for Brewer:

Brewer rejoins the Mets organization after serving as the Pittsburgh Pirates rehabilitation coordinator in 2009. He left New York (NL) for the Pirates after acting as the Mets Latin American pitching coordinator in 2008. Prior to that, he spent two seasons as a pitching coach in the Mets farm system, including 2006 with Binghamton.

Natera drew some attention last year when the Mets moved him down from his hitting coach position in Buffalo to the B-Mets after a disastrous offensive start for the Bisons.  In terms of attitude and energy, Bill Maase, who was promoted from Binghamton to Buffalo, was a better fit for a AAA clubhouse.  It’s very intriguing that the Mets chose to bring Natera back after such an odd 2009.  This will be Natera’s 13th season in the Mets organization.

Natera, has served as a hitting coach for New York at five different levels, including St. Lucie (2007), Low-A Hagerstown (2005-06), Rookie Kingsport (2003-04) and Low-A Capital City (1999). He was also a member of the coaching staff for the Rookie Gulf Coast League Mets in 1998.He served in his native country as coordinator of the Mets’ Dominican Academy in 2001 and 2002. An infielder, Natera played shortstop in the Mets’ organization from 1984-1988 advancing as high as the Low-A South Atlantic League. Currently, his son, Luis Natera Jr., is a Mets’ farmhand.

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According to Arangure, with Fernando’s early struggles this winter, whispers had begun about whether Martinez was out of shape and whether he could ever actually live up to his potential. Having had a strong Dominican series finals, Martinez has silenced some of his critics. Martinez hit .387 with 2 home runs and a series-high 6 RBIs in helping lead the Leones to their 1st title since 1992. Martinez will hope to lead Escogido to a Caribbean World Series title, starting Feb. 2 in Venezuela.

Minaya acknowledges that the main goal for Martinez is to stay healthy this year. “We expect him to be a contributor in the majors in a year or so”, Minaya said Minaya also says that they still believe that Martinez can play center-field, but it has yet to be determined. Everyone knows that this is a pivotal year for Fernando’s development. Asked if the organization has lost faith in the 21-year old Martinez, “Our opinion of him has not changed,” Minaya said. “It’s just a matter that we have to give him a chance to play.”

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Wednesday, we spent the morning detouring north from I-40 to the Grand Canyon.  It was spectacular and an absolute must if you find yourself driving cross-country.

Thursday, we woke up in snowy Tucumcari, NM planning on heading east again on I-40.  Bad news.  After 116 very slow, snowy treacherous miles on 40 to Amarillo, TX I-40 closed in deference to the weather.  No matter.  We hung a right down to Dallas on US 287 to spend a night with a friend’s family and escape the snow in favor of first dry roads and then driving rain.

My dad hates eating in chain restaurants, so we’ve enjoyed a lot of burritos on this trip.  If it wasn’t for tiny Mexican joints, there would be no independent food options anywhere near a highway anymore, or so it seems.

Baseball thoughts: resigning Fernando Tatis reflects a complete lack of imagination and a failed winter to improve the Mets.

BP released the first run of their PECOTA projections and it’s ugly for the Mets who are projected for 77-85 and fourth place in the NL East.  After the Great Santana, no starting pitcher is projected with a VORP (that’s Value Over REPLACEMENT Player) above 8!  Replacement.  Measured in runs.  I think the system is light on Jon Niese, but man, is that alarming.

I wrote earlier this week that it was reasonable enough for the Mets not to sign Joel Pineiro.  However, given the fact that they weren’t even close to Ben Sheets or Jon Garland, should they have been more aggressive with JP?  I vote yes.  This team simply doesn’t look primed for a playoff run barring massive contributions from youngsters exceeding expectations.

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Law also lists his Top 10 by organization. Here is the Mets Top 10, according to Law:
1.Jenrry Mejia
2.Wilmer Flores
3.Ike Davis
4.Fernando Martinez
5.Brad Holt
6.Jon Niese
7.Josh Thole
8.Reese Havens
9.Jefry Marte
10.Juan Urbina

Interesting contrasts between different “experts”. All have their points, and have different sources of information. Nice to see the Mets represented here. Martinez’s injuries are definitely the major factor in his decline.

In Law’s Mets Top 10, Marte and Urbina are the biggest surprises. Having struggled in his 1st full-season, Marte (.223/.279/.338/617) still has the raw tools and ability. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, and Ruben Tejada could have better arguements than Marte or Urbina. Toby’s Top 41 will be here very soon.

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According to Mayo the criteria for the list includes: To be eligible for the Top 50 list, players must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service. With this criteria, both Jon Niese and Fernando Martinez were ineligible, but with that being said I am not sure if they would have made the list anyway. For what its worth, Mayo did point out on the show that Fernando Martinez was not eligible due to his MLB service time in 2009. Once again these lists should be taken with a grain of salt. While it stirs up great discussion, it also makes you wonder, how can these lists differ so dramatically? The Mets were the only NL East team without a representative. Hmmmm, that should raise a few eyebrows..

Braves-2 (Heyward #1, Teheran #30)
Marlins-2 (Stanton #3, Morrison #25)
Nationals-2 (Strasburg #2, Storen # 40)
Phillies-2 (Brown #14, Aumont #47)

Once again we have to be careful into putting too much weight on these list. Mejia and Ike Davis are the 2 players that have the strongest arguments to be on the list. This always stirs up great debate and team pride seems to puff up even more. Only time will tell on all prospects, so let the debates continue!!

TH: Did I miss something?  I have both Niese and Martinez as still rookie eligible, barely.

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Jesse, that’s really interesting stuff you have there.

- Braun followed up his big ‘06 by starring in the PCL for the first 33 games of the season in ‘07 where he hit .333/.403/.675 with 12 2B, 9 HR with 13 BB against 11 K.  I saw him repeatedly in his month + in the PCL and he was easily the best hitter in the league.  He was actually the best hitter in the league all year, in a decent year for PCL prospects with Geovany Soto, Hunter Pence and Adam Jones, for example.  Note his absolute complete command of the strike zone with more walks than strikeouts and his ridiculous power with 21 XBH in 33 games.  His low strikeout numbers in the PCL are fairly aberrant among his career totals both in the big leagues and minor leagues.  In the majors, he’s owned K rates between 19 and 25%, while his minor league numbers were similar to Davis, which you can see in the chart below.

- In 2009, the Eastern League hit .258/.332/.385 as a whole while the Southern League hit a nearly identical .255/.332/.380.  Of course, Braun played in the SL in 2006, but lets basically call it a wash as the overall offensive levels appear very similar.  Both hitters’ AA home parks, Huntsville and Binghamton, play largely fair.

- And yes, Ryan Braun did play in the AFL following his 2006 season.  Like Ike, he raked in the league:

Braun hit for a little bit more power (16 XBH to Ike’s 11), walked a little more, and struck out a little less.  Over fewer than 100 AB is the difference real?  Barely.

- Lets keep digging deeper to see if the two players are as similar as their counting stats suggest:

During their age-22 regular seasons, Davis walked more than Braun.  In AA and the AFL, Davis whiffed more than Braun.  Note that Davis’s production relied on very high BABIPs, which were between 23 and 57 points higher than Braun’s in each league and will be unsustainable moving forward.  For what it’s worth, Braun’s MLB BABIPs have bounced around, but been strong, going .367, .308 and then .355 in his 2.75 MLB seasons.

- The stolen base difference you point out is key.  It indicates simply that Braun is faster and more athletic than Davis at the same age.

- How about defense? Remember that Braun was attempting to play third base at this point.  He was awful at third (-23 UZR in only 111 G) so the Brewers moved him to left field where he’s been comfortably below average, but not embarrassing (-17.6 over two years).  Davis, should be at least average with a chance to be plus at first.

Basically, your comparison of Davis to Braun is an absolute best case scenario for the Mets and their fans.

I don’t think Davis will be able to equal Braun’s offensive production in the big leagues because Braun’s swing is a cleaner and his power is a little more natural.  On the other hand, Davis has shown more patience in the minors, so while I expect him to hit for a lower average, he should get on base plenty.  Also, Davis’ potential defensive edge could help narrow the gap.

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