Though the White Sox have a trade in place to ship right-hander Javier Vazquez to the Braves, they aren’t done dealing, and there are whispers that they are working on a blockbuster that would send closer Bobby Jenks and right fielder Jermaine Dye to the Mets for a package that would include center-field prospect Fernando Martinez.

Dye, who will be 35 in January is signed through 2009 with a mutual option for 2010. Jenks is relatively cheap as he approaches his arbitration years.

And what else is in the package?

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Martinez Production Breakdown

1. What strikes me first is Martinez’s consistency.  His XBH % and SO% have all vacillated within relatively tight ranges.

2. Martinez’s brief trip to St. Lucie at the end of 2006 was uncharacteristic both for its low walk rate, and at that time, relatively high home run rate.  Yes, he was a kid trying to hit everything out of the park.

3. By the spring of ‘07 his modest walk rates had returned, but the power dropped as he adjusted to life in AA.  Since then, his ISO and HR rate have risen in tandem with no decline in his walk rate and little change in his SO %.  This is progress.  His ISO in the DWL is a career high.

4. This winter, Martinez has seen more singles fall in.  I’d be curious about whether this improvement in his BABIP has to do with a change in his approach, or line drive rate or is simply luck over his first 100 AB.

Note: I have excluded rehab appearances in the GCL from the table.

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A few weeks ago, I wrote that the Mets should sign Kerry Wood as their future closer.  A few readers properly pointed out that my argument for Wood over Brian Fuentes was a little weak.  Now, this is a a pretty stark difference.  The choice is Fuentes (or Rodriguez) vs. Wood and a 1st round pick in June of 2009.

The value of a first round pick is not small.  On the other hand, one could argue that the Mets could prefer one of the other pitchers by such a large margin that the consideration of the pick is a small matter.  You tell me, does this matter?

By the way, the Mets handled their end of the arbitration process well, offering arbitration only to Oliver Perez so that the team would recoup two draft picks should he sign elsewhere.

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Jack from Africa - for now asks:
John, How did Scott Shaw not make the list? He didn’t have to be #1 but he was the best pitcher in the league statistically - he dominated. He should have been on the list somewhere.

A: John Manuel: I hate to sound like a broken record, but his fastball was a bit short for me to put him on the top 20. He had an incredible year after signing — more than 100 IP as a pro after 50 or so at Illinois, and he sounds like he has a chance to be a durable, back-of-the-rotation guy if it all works out. But he works at 87-88 mph with his fastball, and the life on the pitch is just OK according to my info. Great scouting by the Mets (Scott Trcka’s the area guy there) on getting him and he could be a real find, but I thought his fastball was short to make the list.

….

Q: Bainton from NY asks:
Were there ant Met prospects that merited consideration?

A: John Manuel: Shaw almost made it; Ruben Tejada had his supporters but his tools really don’t stand out according to anyone I talked to. He was most impressive for grinding out a long season as a teenager, through the Fla. State League and then Hawaii. But there’s not a tool that gets scouts or managers raving.

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Statistically speaking: Talk about a split. During the 2008 season, F-Mart had 106 at-bats against left-handers and 246 vs. righties. Martinez, a left-handed hitter, hit just .217 with a .665 OPS against southpaws while the numbers jumped to .317 and .819 vs. right-handers.

Scouting report: ….many still believe Martinez will hit for average and power as he matures. Reviews are mixed, but most still like his bat speed from the left side. He’s got a good arm and played good defense in center this past season.

Upside potential: The sky is still the limit. He’ll play at age 20 in 2009 and still has the tools to be an All-Star caliber outfielder.

They said it: “The main thing for him, he needs to stay healthy. … Slowly but surely he’s playing how everyone is expecting him to be.” — Binghamton Mets manager Mako Oliveras

I’d say Oliveras nailed it with his first sentence.

He said it: “I work for that moment. Every day, every night. I think, ‘Wow, when will I be there in New York?’” — Martinez at the 2008 Futures Game

Entering Tuesday’s play, Martinez was 4-for-his-last 24 in the DWL for an overall line of .323/.377/.552 in 96 AB.  He’s sixth in the league in SLG and 8th in OPS.

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Eduardo Morlan | Tampa Bay
Position: Right-Handed Reliever
Born: March 1986
2008 Level: Double-A

Eduardo Morlan was traded to Tampa Bay from Minnesota last winter in the Matt Garza-Delmon Young swap. He can dial his fastball up into the mid-90s and he has a high-80s slider that acts as his strikeout pitch. His numbers were down in 2008 after switching organizations but you don’t get the chance to nab a player with this skill set after a fabulous season. He still allowed just 44 hits in 47 innings with rates of 2.87 BB/9 and 8.62 K/9.

Alan Horne | New York (AL)
Position: Right-Handed Starter
Born: January 1983
2008 Level: Triple-A

Alan Horne spent the majority of the season battling a bicep strain and was not at his best when he made eight starts at the Triple-A level. He allowed 35 hits in 32 innings of work and posted rates of 6.19 BB/9 and 6.75 K/9. Teams that are comfortable with his medical report could grab him with the hopes of seeing a healthy Horne show up at spring training. In 2007 at Double-A, he struck out 165 batters in 153.1 innings. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

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This should end his PWL season.

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At the brilliant The Book - Playing the Percentages in Baseball, Tom Tango (Tangotiger) answers that question by calculating, using wins above replacement, and assigning a dollar value per win, that Pedro was overpaid by $18 million over the life of his Mets contract.

The math follows after the jump.

In his 4 year with the Mets, Pedro was worth around 9 WAR (wins above replacement).

He was +2.7 WAA (wins above average) according to WPA, and +3.2 according to WPA/LI.  An average pitcher, given Pedro’s 487 innings for those 4 years would be +6 WAR.  Pedro was 3 wins above this level, making him a 9 WAR pitcher.

If you start him at 3 WAR in 2005, and decrease him by 0.5 WAR each year, that totals 9 WAR from 2005-2008.  Giving dollars per win of 3.3 in 2005, and increasing by 10% every year, the total comes out to 35MM.

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The Twins didn’t protect several players of interest, including last year’s No. 1 overall pick, righthander Tim Lahey, whom the Rays selected and traded to the Cubs; he was later returned to the Twins. Lahey could go again, but another righty, Netherlands product Loek Van Mil, has more upside. The 7-foot-1 Van Mil has reached 97 mph in short stints in international play, and consistently hit 94 this summer for low Class A Beloit while also flashing a plus slider. His delivery and arm action are fairly clean, but he over-threw while preparing for the 2008 Olympics with the Dutch national team and has a partial ligament tear in his elbow. He’s not scheduled to have surgery and could be stashed on a big league disabled list while he rehabs his elbow in 2009. A former Twin, Rays righty Eduardo Morlan, struggled after being included in the deal that sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay, but he regained his 92-94 mph velocity while getting off to a great start in the Puerto Rican League this winter.

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