Height/Weight: 6’2”/192 lbs

Acquired: 2^nd rd ’09 (Ward-Melville HS)

Born: 5/29/91

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: The Mets signed Matz, their  first pick in the 2009 draft at #72 overall, for $895,000 on August 17^th, making Matz, who grew up a Mets fan on Long Island, very happy.  Now it’s his turn to return the excitement for the team and its fans.

On the day Matz signed, the Mets Director of Amateur Scouting, Rudy Terrasas explained what attracted the Mets to Matz, “The first thing that we were really impressed with Steven was his size, he’s 6’4”, 195, and he’s lefthanded.  We liked his delivery.  We liked his arm action.  We liked the athleticism.  We liked the way he competed.”  Matz grew late in high school, which helped him add velocity, pushing him into the low 90s with regularity.  He also attempted to add a slider last winter, but, by his own admission, that project was not an immediate success, as he felt more comfortable with his fastball, curveball and changeup.

Matz slips ahead of Juan Urbina because his fastball is presently better and he’s 20 lbs bigger.  Matz can work in the low 90s, while Urbina’s heat at that velocity is still a projection.  Also, if Matz was able to induce $900K from the Mets, wouldn’t he have been worth more than Urbina’s $1.25 million on the open market?

2009: Matz signed too late to appear in a GCL game, but reported for instructs in the DR.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Matz and Urbina give the Mets two potential LHP starters in the slightly distant future.

Debbie Downer Says: MLB teams drafted 71 players ahead of Matz in the ’09, so not everyone was as excited about him as the Mets.

Projected 2010 Start: Kingsport or the GCL, where with success, he’ll make a cameo in Brooklyn or Savannah.

MLB Arrival: Mid-late 2014

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Height/Weight: 6’2”/195 lbs

Acquired: NDFA (7/2/07)

Born: 4/1/91

2009 Rank: 17

Why Ranked Here: This ranking for Puello could be a little light, and you could make a strong argument for him hopping over any of the next five guys in front of him, and I would not tell you that you were wrong.  Puello earns this spot because he improved from his GCL season in 2008 to his Appalachian League run in 2009 and showed off tools that impressed scouts.  One scout who saw him wrote me that Puello, “can sorta do it all now.  He runs plus, he throws plus and has power and should grow into more.”  The same scout thought he would slow down as he ages, but was clearly impressed by Puello, whose hands and feel for contact I liked a lot.  He now has a chance to be an above average regular in rightfield, a player who will be an asset at the plate, in the field and on the bases.

2009: Puello made a late season charge at hitting.300 by hitting safely in his final seven games in a row and 11 of his final 12 raising his batting average 38 points in the season’s final two weeks, but ended up missing the .300 mark by just one hit. Also, as the season wore on, he became more selective, walking 7 times in August, a BB rate over 6%, which is far better than his ~2% rate early in the season.  His impressive .373 OBP was buoyed by 14 HBP.  A batter’s ability to induce HBP has been shown to by a repeatable skill, so Puello’s OBP might always be a little stronger than one would otherwise expect given his walk rate.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Above average regular in RF who makes two All-Star games in his career.

Debbie Downer Says: A frequent rider on the Buffalo-Queens express, who never wins a full-time job.

Projected 2010 Start: Savannah

MLB Arrival: 2014 or September 2013

Photo Courtesy Allen Greene of Allen Greene Photography

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Height/Weight: 6’2”/170

Acquired: NDFA 7/2/09

Born: 5/31/93 (Ocumare del Tuy, VZ)

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: The Mets top international signing in 2009 is a lean, projectible, 16-year old lefthander.  Urbina’s father, Ugueth is both a two-time All-Star in the Major Leagues and has been convicted of two counts of attempted murder for he is currently serving a 14-year prison sentence. His son reportedly already throws 88-89 mph, which is already fringe-average for a lefty, and the Mets hope that his velocity will build as his body matures.  His breaking ball and changeup each are supposed to have promise.

2009: Urbina signed with the Mets and was impressive at instructs in the DR.

Dr. Pangloss Says: He’ll be a upper echelon LHP starter.

Debbie Downer Says: Aside from all of the usual risks attendant with young pitchers, there’s this thing about his father attempting to kill two of his employees.  Mets fans had better hope that pop’s dose of crazy skipped the son.

Projected 2010 Start: Extended Spring Training and then the GCL

MLB Arrival: 2015

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Bats/Throws:

Height/Weight: 5’10”/190 lbs

Acquired: FA 12/09

Born: 5/28/79

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: He’s going to be a MLB bullpen part.  While others on the list above him have higher ceilings, barring injury or major collapse, Igarashi, who was one of the harder throwers in Japanese professional baseball will contribute to the 2010 Mets.  Igarashi can still dial it up to the mid-90s and toss in a splitter around 90.  He and Bobby Parnell should form a pretty nasty pair of RHP firearmers in front of K-Rod.  He’s not going to be a star, but if he throws 50+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball as he’s done in Japan in every year since 2000, the Mets should be pleased.  Of course, MLB is tougher than the NPB.

2009: 3-2-3 saves, 3.19 ERA 44 K in 53.2 IP.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Igarashi helps out what has the potential to be a strong Mets ‘pen in front of K-Rod.

Debbie Downer Says: Well, yeah, he’s a middle reliever with control problems.

Projected 2010 Start: The Mets Bullpen

MLB Arrival: April 7, 2010.  I’m betting he won’t pitch on Opening Day, but will throw in game two against the Marlins.

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So, lets turn to the projections for the two players.  I’ve compared the weighted means generated by most recent build of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system for the two players below.  For years, PECOTA has outperformed the other available projection systems.  However, BP has really been struggling with PECOTA this year while making a long-overdue attempt to modernize their backend architecture.  It seems that they now have enough of the bugs worked out that I’m comfortable using it.

I hate to say it, but those numbers for Cora feel a little optimistic coming off a .251/.320/.310 campaign in 2009.   Cora is on record saying he can do better, and his broken thumbs hurt his offensive output in 2009. I’m sympathetic to this argument, but the fact is that he’s cleared a .320 OBP and a .360 SLG just once in the last six years.  In the other five, I believe, his thumbs were intact.  At Fangraphs, Bill James, CHONE and Marcel put Cora around .250/.320/.340, which is close enough.

CHONE is the only one of the systems hosted by Fangraphs to evaluate Tejada, pegging him for an unimpressive .237/.291/.316 line.  Tejada, lest you forget hit .289/.351/.381 for AA Binghamton in 2009.

Obviously, Tejada, as the younger player by 15 years, is a much better bet to improve.

Defensively, by UZR, Cora has been a few runs below average the last two years, after playing a few runs above average for the preceding three seasons.  Total zone has also not liked Cora’s work defensively recently.  I firmly believe that Tejada would outplay Cora defensively.  A middle infield of Cora and Luis Castillo would be murder on Mike Pelfrey, but not on the grounders pitchers try to generate.

And the Winner is:

The Phillies.  And the Braves.

And Tejada, weakly.

The Mets need Reyes on the field to mount a playoff challenge. In the interim, the Mets can use the final three weeks until Opening Day to figure out whether Tejada’s defensive advantage is as real as I think it is.  Either way, the team will be getting very poor production from their SS position.  Tejada at least makes a lot of contact, so with balls in play, he’ll have a chance to put up a decent batting average for a month.

Other Takes:

Adam Rubin believes it’ll be Tejada on Opening Day.

Ted Berg wants to remind everyone again, and again, how little sense resigning Alex Cora made, especially given that the Mets don’t trust him to play SS in Reyes’ absence.

Kevin Goldstein thinks the Mets should go with Tejada:

This wouldn’t be another case of the Mets curbing the development of some high-ceiling prospect by rushing him to the majors; Tejada is pretty much all he’s ever going to be right now, and he’s certainly not going to be worse than Cora.

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No doubt, Mejia’s a cool story right now. 

Mike Vaccaro dreams about Mejia and Davis and writes that in spring training:

“You are permitted to dream. Some would say required to.”

This one should be decided in a few years.  Morrison hit for less power than Davis, but showed a lot more strike zone control, walking 63 times and striking out just 46 times in 79 games at AA last year.  Still, usually to be an impact 1B, you gotta hit the ball out of the yard.  Freeman, who was just 19 last year, ripped in the FSL (.302/.394/.447) but struggled in AA (.248/.308/.342).  He appears to be at least a year behind Davis, but also makes more contact  (19 K, 11 BB in 41 G at AA). 

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All I can do is shake my head when I read things like this. This is a classic case of a lame duck manager, that is desperate for solutions, regardless of future ramifications. Mejia has been completely dominant so far this spring. In 2 appearances Mejia has pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up 2 hits no walks while striking out 5. Its 2 appearances folks, 5 1/3 innings! To think that Mejia is ready for a major league role is ridiculous. The Mets have an asset in Mejia, but he needs time in the minor-leagues to work. In 2009, Mejia had a BB/9 of 3.58, in A+ and AA combined. Then in his AFL experience, Mejia walked 13 in 14 1/3 innings. Mejia needs innings as a starter in the minors to determine if he can ultimately become a big league starting pitcher. Having a dominant starting pitcher is much more important than having a dominant short reliever. The Mets need to look across the street to the Bronx to find out how not to handle a young flame-thrower (Joba).

Thanks to metsblog.com for the picture, you can find more spring training photos here.

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Bats/Throws:

Height/Weight: 6’0”/192 lbs

Acquired: 3^rd Rd ’07 (Wake Forest)

Born: 9/4/85 (Wyandotte, MI)

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: I think Niesen was my worst miss in last year’s rankings.  I focused on his unimpressive 3.5 BB/9 and 5.87 K/9 in 2008 rather than his solid velocity.  (By the way, I missed him throw when I was in the FSL, and if you’re headed to Florida in July to see baseball, you need to allot about 8 days to see five games and the whole pitching staff.  But we digress…)  So Niesen cleaned up his act, threw more strikes in 2009 and worked his way to AA where he was lights out at the end of the year.  Niesen has above average velocity from the left side.  He’s a very thoughtful guy and at times seems to outthink himself.  He admits that he does better when he stays in the moment and has struggled to control focus in the past.  His curve was useful against minor leaguers but hardly a plus pitch.

2009: As a 23-year old, Niesen’s improvement in the FSL was nice, but hardly the thing that gets prospects noticed.  The way he ended the season by dominating AA hitters does get players noticed.  In his last seven starts for AA Binghamton, he was 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA over 41.1 IP , 29 H, 13 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 15 BB, and 45 K!  Up, that’s a K/BB of 3 at AA.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Predicting Niesen is so hard, because he’s been so all over the place, but I know I like lefties with velocity.  I see him as a very good lefty reliever, but his late-season run in Binghamton might suggest that he can start in a big league rotation.

Debbie Downer Says: Eh, lets see him have more than two good months.  He’ll be an up-and-down guy who won’t stick in the big leagues.

Projected 2010 Start: Good question.  Western New York for sure.  Buffalo most likely, with Binghamton a 35% chance.  (Ok, I made that number up, but it feels reasonable).

MLB Arrival: Late 2011

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Height/Weight: 6’2”, 230 lbs

Acquired: NDFA 7/8/06

Born: 10/12/89 (Santo Domingo, DR)

2009 Rank: #7

Why Ranked Here: Pena drops 12 spots down the rankings because he hit a whopping .224/.258/.329 in St. Lucie as a 19-year old.  Last year I had him in the top 10 on the basis of his youth, position and power.  He still has power, with the potential for above or slightly better power in the big leagues from a position that generally contributes little at the plate.  His eight home runs in 2009 are the same number that Josh Thole has hit in his last two US professional seasons spanning his time in St. Lucie, Binghamton, the AFL and the big leagues. However, the rest of Pena’s offensive game is still exceedingly raw.  Pena should repeat the FSL, where he’ll still on the young side for the league, and still younger than almost all of the ballplayers drafted out of college, none of whom have 308 games of professional experience.  For those of you who have done a single-league fantasy draft recently in a reasonably deep league, you understand how precious a catcher who can hit can be.  In this very demanding defensive position, Pena’s power could play.   

2009: Pena struck out in 18.8% of his plate appearances, his lowest rate in his three professional seasons, but also walked an anemic 3.6% of the time.  He simply must start seeing more pitches and working at bats better to be an All-Star.  The Mets have gradually increased Pena’s workload behind the plate in the last three years.  He’s seen action in 103, 105, and 100 games in the last three years, but caught 81, 92 and 100 games in those seasons.    Pena’s work behind the dish took a big step forward as well.  After throwing out 23% of runners in ’07 and ’08 he nailed a very solid 37% of prospective base stealers in 2009.

Dr. Pangloss Says: This is the best of all possible worlds, and I’m not giving up on the idea that with a better approach at the plate, Pena can be an All-Star.

Debbie Downer Says: He’ll never handle the demands of catching every day in the big leagues.

Projected 2010 Start: St. Lucie.  I just can’t see Pena catching everyday in AA.  He belongs in the FSL.

MLB Arrival: September 2013

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