Bats/Throws: Left/Left

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205 lbs

Acquired: 4^th rd 2009 (Columbia Basin (OR) CC)

Born: 6/22/90 (Tracy, CA)

2011 Rank: 12

Why Ranked Here: Ceciliani slips 18 spots from last year because he had an up and down full-season professional debut. He seemed to figure things out as the year wore on, however, and did enough to earn a promotion to advanced-A St. Lucie to start 2012.

Scouts were mixed a bit on Ceciliani, some liked him a lot, and some just a little. One compared him favorably to Matt den Dekker and pointed out that Ceciliani could do many of the same things, and was a few years younger.  Others were disappointed in his shape early in the season.  Others liked his swing, attitude and effort. The most optimistic put grades on him reflecting a big league regular, while others settled for a fourth-outfielder type.

On the plus side, Ceciliani, who’s above average as a runner, gets good jumps, and can play a nice centerfield.  It is this ability to play centerfield that keeps him in the top 30. However, his arm is below average holding him to center and left.  He worked to improve his base-stealing technique and acumen and stole bases at a 76% clip, going 25-for-33 for Savannah.

On the down side, Ceciliani hit just .259 and collected extra-base hits in 6.4% of his plate appearances. The question is simple: will he hit enough, and get on base enough, to play everyday?

2011: Ceciliani began 2011 with a strained hamstring.  It was the second year in a row, that a highly-touted Gnat began the season with a strained hamstring following Jefry Marte in 2010.  There’s no question that it hampered both players early in the season.  In particular, Ceciliani after a handful of games in April, hit just .229/.325/.343 in May and finished the first half at .245/.335/.370.  As the year wore on, he clearly played his way into better shape.

Ceciliani clearly became a more patient hitter during the 2011 season.  He drew 18 walks in 48 games in the first half or one every 2.67 games.  In the second half, he drew 34 walks in 61 games, or one every 1.8 games. All told, for the season, he upped his walk-rate from 2010’s 8% to nearly 11% in 2011.  He did that while holding his strikeout percentage below 20%.

He finished on fire, batting .320/.421/.443 in August. In the 36 total games leading into game five of the SAL Championship series he hit .326/.428/.440 with 11 extra-base hits and 24 walks. Edit: His August run was no accident.  His line drive percentage (admittedly a slightly flawed stat), which had been 10.6% in May, and near 15% in June and July, climbed all the way to 19.8% in August/September.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Low-average everyday CF, with plenty of walks to support his offensive value.

Debbie Downer Says:  Jesus Feliciano called. He’ll see you in the International League

Projected 2012 Start: St. Lucie

MLB Arrival: 2015

Fun Facts: 1. Ceciliani did not have a single sacrifice fly in 2011. 2. His brother is a bull-rider.
Basic

Advanced

Leave a Comment

http://

- At Baseball America, Jim Callis looks forward to the 2012 draft, the first under the new CBA which dramatically punishes teams from going over the commissioners’ recommended slot. In fact, because the penalties are so harsh, the slots have moved from “recommended” to “nearly mandatory.” According to Callis’ insiders, this year’s draft class is much weaker than 2011′s.

One fear popularly expressed by prospect writers especially, was that limits on signing bonuses for amateurs would drive kids to choose other sports.  I think this fear is overblown.  So do some of Callis’ sources, including an AL Scouting Director who said, “Everyone slams the door and says all the high school kids are going to college.  I’m still confident. The guys who want to play pro ball will sign. Will they take less money? I still believe we’ll get the same type of players but pay them less.”

Emphasis added.

- One reason guys will still sign? College baseball does not offer full scholarships.  And the NCAA is broken.  The NCAA committed on infractions has ruled that the University of Nebraska has committed “Major violations” for wait for it, allowing students on scholarship to buy course books. Seriously. The case turned on the fact that student-athletes were allowed to use scholarship money for books that were “recommended” where NCAA rules only permit scholarship money to be used for books that are “required.”  It’s almost like the administrators have never been to college. Imagining a dumber ruling is really hard. (via @jaybilas)

- At Metsmerized Online, Petey talks to LHP Josh Edgin today.

- At Amazin’ Avenue, Rob Castellano moves into his Mets Prospects #20-16.

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 185 lbs

Acquired: 16^th rd 2011

Born: 12/14/92

2011 Rank: N/A

Why Ranked Here: Speed, speed and speed. Marquez, a high school shortstop who the Mets will move to centerfield can absolutely fly.  As you can see in the scouting video below, he put up a 3.8 home to first time. That’s plus-plus.

The Mets paid the Marquez $325,000 to sign at the deadline last August. The two-sport star at Odessa HS in Texas is also playing football at Texas Tech where he had a reasonably strong season as a true freshmen.

Marquez has a chance to be a premium defender in centerfield.  If he can get on base, there’s some all-star potential in here.

2011: Texas Tech: 12 games, 4 starts, 25 receptions, 240 yards. He was sixth on the Red Raiders in receiving yards, and was seventh in receptions. He was second in kick return yardage (168 yards) on nine returns.

Baseball? He signed too late to play in 2011.

Dr. Pangloss Says: All-star centerfielder

Debbie Downer Says:  NFL wide receiver, or you know, a speedster who can’t hit MLB pitching.

Projected 2012 Start: Kingsport Mets

MLB Arrival:  2016

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 225 lbs

Acquired: 4^th round 2010 (San Diego State)

Born:  5/1/89 (Carmichael, CA)

2011 Rank: 13

Why Ranked Here: Vaughn slips 19 spots down the rankings from a year ago because he hit .219 in 63 games in the second half in St. Lucie.  It’s really that simple.  Now, there are two mitigating factors: 1. He might have been hurt and 2. had a very low batting average on balls in play. Vaughn hurt his heel right around the time of his promotion to St. Lucie in what was described as a bruise.  He missed about a week of game action, but the average never came back.  In St. Lucie, his BABIP was .245. Ok, that’s the bad news.

Now, the good news.  He’s a physical specimen at 6’3” and 225 lbs. He stood out from the other a-ballers, with as scouts say, “an MLB body.” He drew walks, 12% in Savannah and almost 10% in St. Lucie.  He’s a hard worker who gets into the clubhouse first everyday. He was hit by 19 pitches between the two levels, buttressing his on-base totals and it turns out getting plunked is a repeatable skill. Even while his batting average dipped, he hit nine home runs in St. Lucie in just 63 games.

Vaughn played 10 games in centerfield in Savannah, and just one for St. Lucie.  He just doesn’t have the pure speed and range for the position.  In the outfield, he has enough arm for right.  He did not have much success stealing bases; he was just 10-for-18 between the two a-ball levels.

Mets fans just have to hope that his heel problem was worse than he admitted. However, if he was healthy enough to play, a top prospect needs to hit better than .219 in advanced-a as a 21-year old.

2011: Vaughn graduated from Savannah at the All-Star Break after hitting .286/.405/.408 for Savannah.  He then hit .219/.310/.395 in 63 games for St. Lucie in the second half.  There are things in both of those lines that should be concerning.  In Savannah, it was the lack of power. Historic Grayson Stadium is an extremely difficult place to hit home runs. However, it’s not just the home runs that he missed. His extra-base hit percentage plummeted to 6.7% from 10.5% in Brooklyn.  Also, he just didn’t seem to drive the ball with very much authority. Nor did he seem to do much damage against quality fastballs.

In St. Lucie, obviously the concern was his .219 batting average. However, across both levels, he hit a combined .255/.363/.402 with a .315 BABIP.  He aspires to join a group, MLB right fielders, who averaged .269/.341/.441 in 2011.

He struck out over 20% of the time between both levels.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Everyday rightfielder, but I don’t see star potential anymore.

Debbie Downer Says: He doesn’t hit for a high enough average to hold a big league job.

Projected 2012 Start: St. Lucie

MLB Arrival: 2014

Basic

Advanced

Leave a Comment

This is part two of our 2012 NL East Preview with Bill Baer of the great Crashburn Alley on the Phillies.

I think these are getting better.

You can hit us with feedback at mostlymetspodcast (at) gmail.com, over the voicemail at (347) 915-METS or in the comments section here.

We’re on itunes here. If you like us, please take the time to rate us and review us.

Rough Rundown after the jump.

Hello
2:00 – Quick responses to Twitter questions
- RA Dickey as candy. Next Met traded. 2014 infield. And much more.
37:00 – Bill Baer from Crashburn Alley – NL East Preview part 2
1:07:00 – The Most Valuable Met in 2014
1:28:00 – Obligatory Bacon Discussion
1:36:00 – Ted proposes a revolutionary new sandwich
1:41:00 – Superbowl predictions

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 185 lbs

Acquired: 24^th round 2010 (UCLA)

Born: 12/20/88

2011 Rank: 18

Why Ranked Here: Goeddel slips 16 spots down the rankings because he showed flashes of brilliance with the Savannah Sand Gnats but was not dominant enough long enough to earn a mid-season promotion before he got hurt.  He suffered a sore right shoulder that sidelined him from May 29 through August 7^th.  The injury was particularly concerning for Goeddel given his injury history. He missed most of the 2008 and 2009 seasons at UCLA, following Tommy John surgery.  After pitching out of the bullpen in 2010, shoulder and elbow inflammation held him to just one professional inning in 2010.

Goeddel might have been throwing 94-97 out of the bullpen at UCLA (or the ESPN guns were juiced) but as a starter with Savannah, he mostly sat in the low 90s and would touch 94 at his peak. There were nights when his slider was a wipeout pitch, with plus potential, and there were nights when he struggled with his feel.  Other starts, his curve was his best breaking pitch.

Goeddel is smart, and the ability to think through at-bats and self-analyze will help him along the way.

In 2011, he was very concerned with maintaining the tempo of his delivery.  He had a tendency to go too slowly, and lose fluidity and his release point.  His goal, at the urging of Sand Gnats’ pitching coach Glen Abbott was to speed up his delivery to stay in sync.

2011: Goeddel was absolutely lights out in May, and seemed to be well on his way to a second-half promotion to advanced-A St. Lucie before coming down with his shoulder soreness.  His May: 25 IP, 14 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 27 K.  Yum.  However, he just wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned to the Gnats in August.

By Half

Dr. Pangloss Says: I still see stuff that would allow him to hold down a rotation spot.

Debbie Downer Says: But Dr., he couldn’t throw 80 innings in a-ball and stay healthy. Also, he lost something after his 2011 injury.

Projected 2012 Start: St. Lucie

MLB Arrival: 2014

Basic

Advanced

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Right/Left

Height/Weight: 5’11”, 205 lbs

Acquired: 5^th rd, 2011

Born: 7/14/90 (Beverly, MA)

2011 Rank: N/A

Why Ranked Here: The little lefty had an unbelievably good debut in Brooklyn in 2011, striking out over half of the batters he faced in the New York-Penn League.  His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he can reach back for 95 mph at top velocity.  His slider flashes plus.

That’s the good stuff.  The first concern with a sub-6’ pitcher is simply durability.  There just aren’t that many guys who stick in MLB rotations at that size.  Secondly, as his pitching coach, Frank Viola noted this summer, his arm angle varies, and he must do a better job repeating his delivery. Odds are, he ends up as a hard-throwing member of the bullpen.

2011: It is nearly impossible to have a better professional debut than Jack Leathersich did for the Cyclones, when he struck out over half the batters he faced. After pitching to a 1.62 ERA with 126 strikeouts against 27 walks in 89 innings for Umass Lowell, the Mets held Leathersich’s innings down by working him one inning out of the bullpen every five days.  The starter’s schedule also allowed him to throw a bullpen and a side between appearances.

Dr. Pangloss Says: He’ll be a really, really good left-handed reliever.

Debbie Downer Says:  A less impressive reliever who doesn’t make an MLB impact.

Projected 2012 Start: Savannah

MLB Arrival: 2014

Basic

Advanced

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 180

Acquired: 3^rd rd 2011 (Baylor)

Born: 6/19/90

2011 Rank: N/A

Why Ranked Here: Ranking guys who have not begun their professional career is difficult.  Verrett made it more difficult by an inconsistent last 18 months, with a slow start to his junior year dropping him out of the first round.  According to Baseball America, he throws 88-92 and can touch 94, but it “lacks life.”  The Mets were very pleased with his arm strength at instructs in the fall.  That’s a very controlled environment, and I’m eager to see how he handles a full professional season. (Note: I’ve moved Verrett around the rankings a bunch: 30 felt too high, and the guys between here and there have some professional track record.  Again, it’s not too precise at this point.)

2011: He signed for the fourth-largest bonus ($425k) in the 2011 Mets draft class.

Dr. Pangloss Says: #4 starter. Or fastball plays up in short outings out of the bullpen.

Debbie Downer Says:  Let us count the ways a young pitcher might not make it.

Projected 2012 Start: Savannah

MLB Arrival:  September 2014/2015

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Switch/Right

Height/Weight: 5’11”, 175 lbs

Acquired: 8^th round 2011 (Fresno State)

Born: 2/9/89 (Long Beach, CA)

2011 Rank: N/A

Why Ranked Here: Muno had a really strong professional debut, smacking around New York-Penn League pitching at a .355/.466/.514 clip at age 22. He’ll head to 2012 as a 23-year old on Opening Day with the clock ticking loudly.

Muno played shortstop and third base in college, but the Mets had him play all but two games at shortstop in the New York Penn League. His arm is strong enough for either position, but he’ll need to prove that he has the range to play shortstop everyday as a professional.

If he can’t play shortstop everyday, he could carve out a career as a versatile backup infielder or perhaps a third baseman. He does not have the power to profile as a classic third baseman.  However, third base is in transition, and 2011 was a down year for the position as MLBers hit just .252/.317/.390 at third, essentially equal to second basemen.

2011:  Muno, the Mets’ 8^th round pick signed quickly for $10,000 and started beating up on the New York-Penn League.  He led the League in batting average, on-base percentage and was third in walks, and slugging.

It’s a little hard for me not to see a lot of Darrell Ceciliani’s 2010 batting line in Muno’s 2011.  Compare.

Versus Ceciliani

Muno walked considerably more, and struck out slightly less. Ceciliani used his speed more, he had 12 triples compared to Muno’s three, and stole 21 bases compared to Muno’s 9.

Dr. Pangloss Says: An OBP-heavy third baseman.

Debbie Downer Says: Organizational depth

Projected 2012 Start: Savannah

MLB Arrival: 2014

Basic

Advanced

Leave a Comment

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 190 lbs

Acquired: 39^th rd 2009 (Darton College)

Born: 2/20/88

2011 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: Whitenton has an average MLB fastball and improved his control dramatically from 2010 to 2011.  A lean 6’3”, he usually sat around 90-91, and in shorter outings in the Arizona Fall Leagues was sitting 91-93 mph, touching 94.  There were scouts who saw the Gnats in the first half of 2011 who thought Whitenton was the most promising member of the team’s rotation.

He complements the fastball with a slider that has more depth than horizontal movement and a changeup.  He became much more confidant throwing his secondary pitches in games in 2011 and the change-up passed the slider as his second offering.

His over the top delivery gives batters an unusual angle and the ball seems to hop a little out of his hand.  However, many of his strikeouts came on elevated fastballs, a strategy that might lead to trouble at the higher levels.  The high angle also makes it hard for him to generate much horizontal movement on his slider.

Whitenton cut his walk rate from 13.8% in 2010 to 10.5% in 2011, or if you prefer to think in terms of innings, from 5.7 BB/9 to 3.9 BB/9.  While throwing more strikes, his strikeout improved from 23% to 25.9%.

2011: One year after finishing second in the South Atlantic League in walks, Whitenton bounced back to win the (2.49) won the SAL ERA title in the final week of the regular season, edging Augusta’s Shawn Sanford.  Before reading too much into that accomplishment, remember that many of the best prospects in a league will be promoted before they pick up enough innings to qualify for a league ERA title. Still, he made huge strides over his 2010 season.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Even I don’t see enough command to start in the big leagues, but he could be a valuable bullpen part.

Debbie Downer Says:  Or more disciplined upper level hitters don’t chase, and he was just a 23-year old taking advantage of undisciplined a-ball hitters and he’ll get stuck in AA.

Projected 2012 Start: Advanced-A St. Lucie

MLB Arrival: September 2014

Basic

 
Advanced

Leave a Comment