Time to get back to my review of my pre-season Top 41.

Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

This is an interesting group with Tejada and Turner providing big league value now and the same questions surrounding Cohoon, Lutz and Goeddel still lingering on all three.

#16 – LHP Mark Cohoon
What I thought: Cohoon had a great 2010.  Last winter, I wrote: “The bet here is that Cohoon will be very effective in AA in 2011, just as he was to end 2010.  He’ll be pitching in AAA before the minor league all-star break.”
Reality:  I had the levels right.  Cohoon made nine starts in AA with a 3.81 ERA and earned his trip to AAA at the end of May.  He struggled badly in his first six starts at the minors’ highest level putting up a 8.39 ERA in his first 24.2 innings with 10 strikeouts against 10 walks.  In his last three, he’s been better, with a 3.71 ERA and a 2.6 K/BB ratio (13 K/5 BB) in 17 innings. I was worried how Cohoon’s stuff would play at the highest levels, and that’s been an issue.
Stock: Pretty similar, really.  Up a little if he pitches like he has the last few starts.

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#17 – Justin Turner

What I thought: Dr. Pangloss thought he could be a cheap, offensively oriented second baseman.  Debbie Downer was worried that he would never get a full big league shot.
Reality: Turner has landed squarely in on the good side of that range, been a terrific story and a nice asset, worth 0.7 WAR for the 2011 Mets.
Stock: Up

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#18 – Erik Goeddel
What I thought: I thought Goeddel was a promising arm with a lengthy injury history.
Reality: Goeddel was off to a nice start with Sand Gnats before he came down with a shoulder strain.  So, yeah, a promising arm.
Stock: Despite excellent numbers, down, until he starts pitching in games again.  A healthy second half and he moves up.

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#19 – 3B Zach Lutz
What I thought: Lutz has always hit when he’s been healthy, but has had trouble staying on the field.
Reality: Lutz turned 25 on June 3, and once again, he’s hit when he’s been on the field, but missed time with injuries.
Stock: Similar

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#20 – SS/2B Ruben Tejada
What I thought: Last winter I wrote, “He’s a defensive whiz who can play short or second, and be an asset doing either.   The question is purely whether he’ll hit enough to play everyday.”
Reality: In limited time with the Mets so far, Tejada has been good defensively, but has struggled to hit.  Fangraphs gives him +8.6 runs for the combination of his fielding and positional scarcity, but, as expected, he’s been below average with the bat.  He’s toting a wRC+ of 87 with the bat (where 100 is league average).  Fun fact, Tejada and Justin Turner have the same 0.7 fWAR.  Also, in the big leagues, Tejada has a healthy 12% walk rate in the big leagues
Stock: Up some. There’s no question Tejada can pick it.  It’s still an open question how much he’ll hit.  He’s been a small big league asset at 21.

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