Lets get to part four of my mid-season review of my pre-season Top 41 Prospects.  It strikes me that this section has a funny mix of the wildly unproven (Matz and Morris) and then low-ceiling guys close to the big leagues, none of whom worked out yet.

Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#21 -  RHP Manny Alvarez
What I thought: The 25-year old Alvarez had a chance with a nice 2011 and the usual roster churn mixed with an injury or two to show up in the big league bullpen.
Reality: He was ineffective in a brief appearance at AAA in April, sent down to AA, and has been on the Binghamton disabled list with an “elbow strain” since May 3.
His Buffalo numbers: 7 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Stock: Down

#22 – 2B Brad Emaus
What I thought: Emaus deserved the ranking because he went to spring training with a chance to earn a major league starting job, which was much closer than most of my Top 41 would ever get to a big league regular’s job.
Reality: Emaus won the job in Florida, hit .162/.287/.342 in 37 AB in the regular season, and was deservedly sent packing.
Stock: Bye-bye.   Recently, in one of the best hitting environments in the all of baseball, in Colorado Springs, the 25-year old has hit .313/.389/.564 in 45 games.  That’s cool, I guess.

#23 – RHP Akeel Morris
What I thought: He was a raw right-hander with an explosive arm.
Reality: Yup.  Through three starts at Kingsport here’s what the 18-year old has done: 13.1 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 1 HR, 3 HB, 8 BB, 21 K, 6 WP…
Morris’ third start was his best: 0 HB, 2 BB, 9 K, but he was still touched for four runs.
I love the strikeouts, but clearly, he’s been very wild.
Stock: Unchanged.

#24 – LHP Steven Matz
What I thought: Despite Tommy John surgery last May, the Mets first pick in the 2009 draft would be ready to join a short-season team when their seasons started in June.
Reality: Hiccups in his rehab put him behind schedule and he’s currently taking a break in his throwing program.
Stock: Down a little.  Yeah, it’s unfair, but if you don’t pitch, you don’t progress.

#25 – RHP Josh Stinson
What I thought: He had a pretty good 2010, partly in AA.  That deserved some reward.
Reality: I overlooked the 23 year-old’s ordinary strikeout rate, and it cost me. He’s been hit hard at AAA.
Stock: Down

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