It’s time for part three of my review of my pre-season Top 41 prospect rankings.
Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here. Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.
#26 – RHP Brad Holt
What I thought: I didn’t want to give up on Holt after a dreadful 2010, but I didn’t like the way things were going for him.
Reality: The Mets moved him to the bullpen this year, and while he’s giving up fewer hits, he’s still walking way too many guys and has a strikeout to walk ratio of one.
Stock: DOWN
| ERA | G/GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | HR/9 | H/9 | |
| 2010 EL – AA | 10.20 | 10/9 | 30 | 43 | 35 | 34 | 2 | 23 | 25 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.9 |
| 2010 FSL – A+ | 7.48 | 14/14 | 65 | 68 | 57 | 54 | 4 | 56 | 62 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9.4 |
| 2010 Total | 8.34 | 24/23 | 95 | 111 | 92 | 88 | 6 | 79 | 87 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 10.5 |
| 2011 EL – AA | 4.84 | 17/13 | 67 | 56 | 44 | 36 | 5 | 50 | 50 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.5 |
#27 – C Albert Cordero
What I thought: I loved Cordero’s defense, and thought his hands worked at the plate, but was concerned about a very aggressive approach with the bat.
Reality: I nailed it.
He’s thrown out 16 of 32 basestealers against him, which would be good enough to lead the SAL if he had enough games caught. He can really catch.
At the plate, Cordero was doomed early on by his approach. He drew one walk in April and May combined and as June broke was hitting a meager .209/.218/.270. Since June 1, the 21-year old hit .260/.326/.338 with six walks in 23 games, a walk rate of 6.9%. I’m legitimately excited for Cordero that he seems to be making the adjustment to become more patient and is seeing returns on the field.
Stock: Leaning up.
Basic
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2010 R – APP | 54 | 206 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 24 | .277 | .306 | .466 |
| 2011 A – SAL | 55 | 192 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | .229 | .263 | .297 |
Advanced
| XBH% | SO% | BB% | HR% | BABIP | |
| 2010 R – APP | 9.5 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | .277 |
| 2011 A – SAL | 4.3 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | .275 |
#28 – CF Matt den Dekker
What I thought: I liked his defensive ability in center, but worried about his strikeout rate, his ability to hit lefties and a BABIP that was bound to regress from 2010 levels.
Reality: The Mets started the 23-year old in the Florida State League, and Den Dekker was a little streaky. He was crazy hot to start the year, slowed down in May, and then was better in June before a promotion to AA. He improved against lefties (.325/.386/.475), but still ran an isolated slugging percentage of .150 versus southpaws compared to .220 against righties indicating much more comfort against right-handed pitching.
His BABIP fell to .369 in the Florida State League after reaching .474 with Savannah in 2010.
He’s suffered through a miserable first two weeks in Binghamton.
Stock: Holding, but potentially heading up. I want to see what den Dekker, who will be 24 in August, does in the second half in Binghamton playing against players his own age for the first time as a professional.
Basic
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2010 SAL | 27 | 104 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 28 | .346 | .404 | .471 |
| 2011 FSL | 82 | 267 | 79 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 65 | .296 | .362 | .494 |
| 2011 EL | 14 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | .179 | .258 | .232 |
Advanced
| XBH% | SO% | BB% | HR% | BABIP | |
| 2010 SAL | 11.4 | 24.6 | 7.9 | 0.0 | .474 |
| 2011 FSL | 10.9 | 21.5 | 7.9 | 2.0 | .369 |
| 2011 EL | 3.2 | 25.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | .250 |
#29 – RHP Kyle Allen
What I thought: Allen might deserve a mulligan for a 2010 marred by a back injury.
Reality: Maybe not. He hasn’t been much better in 2011.
Stock: Down. Like out of the Top 41, barring a big second half.
| ERA | G/GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | HR/9 | H/9 | |
| 2010 FSL – A+ | 5.24 | 21/19 | 101.33 | 106 | 67 | 59 | 6 | 54 | 53 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.4 |
| 2011 FSL – A+ | 5.49 | 15/10 | 59 | 64 | 41 | 36 | 6 | 37 | 41 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 9.8 |
#30 – LHP Robert Carson
What I thought: I liked Carson’s combination of size and velocity, but was worried about his slow start in 2010 in advanced-a and then his rocky AA debut.
Reality: Fewer hard-hit balls are becoming hits, and his strikeout rate in AA has climbed back to his St. Lucie level. He’s been better in AA in 2011 than 2010. However, but I’m not sure that this degree of better will be enough to remain a starter, or at least one with much value in the big leagues.
Stock: Barely holding
Basic
| ERA | G/GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | HR/9 | H/9 | ||
| 2010 | FSL – A+ | 4.17 | 17/16 | 86.33 | 98 | 42 | 40 | 5 | 33 | 69 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 10.2 |
| 2010 | EL – AA | 8.32 | 10/10 | 48.67 | 68 | 46 | 45 | 7 | 23 | 30 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 2011 | EL – AA | 4.27 | 14/14 | 71.67 | 81 | 42 | 34 | 9 | 30 | 57 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 10.2 |
Advanced
| TBF | BB% | SO% | HR% | |
| 2010 FSL | 385 | 8.6% | 17.9% | 1.3% |
| 2010 EL | 228 | 10.1% | 13.2% | 3.1% |
| 2011 EL | 318 | 9.4% | 17.9% | 2.8% |
All stats as of July 4, 2011.
