I counted 17 players from last year’s Top 41 prospect list who will not make this year’s list, which I should start writing about Wednesday. We’re going to spend today looking at those 17. There are some happy stories including MLB graduations, and many less joyous outcomes.
We’ll start with the three MLB graduates on the position side.
#9 – Lucas Duda
A year ago, I nominated Lucas Duda to be the Mets’ starting right fielder if Carlos Beltran was injured on Opening Day. As it turned out, that was unnecessary – Beltran was healthy and effective in the first half. However, when he was called upon, Duda hit a solid .292/.370/.482 in 100 games. Sure enough, his defense (-11.8) UZR ate away at his overall value, but he’s a valuable and cheap piece for the Mets moving forward.
#17 – Justin Turner
I thought Turner would make a strong platoon-partner with Daniel Murphy at second base. That platoon never really materialized. Once the Mets tired of the Brad Emaus experiment, Turner played second nearly every day in May while putting together a 325/.378/.458 month with eight doubles and yes, 20 RBI that made him an early media darling.
The bad news? His OPS peaked at .962 on May 20 when he was hitting .364/.417/.545, and it was more or less all downhill from there, permanently dropping below the .800 mark on June 4 and the .750 mark a few days later. He flirted with a .700 OPS the rest of the way, finishing at .690 as part of a .260/.334/.356 campaign. From May 21 through the final day of the regular season, he hit .245/.322/.329.
MLB second basemen hit .260/.320/.389 in 2011, so taking Turner’s season as a whole, he produced above average on-base skills, but below average power for the position.
Turner fared poorly by the defensive metrics as well, with BIS’s defensive runs saved putting him at -11 runs for the season and UZR at -10.
Combine average-ish offensive production with below average defense, with the ability to back up shortstop, and he looks like a bench piece or, perhaps a trade chip moving forward, rather than a long term answer at second.
#20 – Ruben Tejada
Ruben Tejada posted the fifth-best fWAR among Mets’ position players in 2011 at 1.8 behind Jose Reyes (6.2), Carlos Beltran (3.4), Daniel Murphy (3.2) and David Wright (1.9). At 96 games played, Tejada played the fewest games as a Met, of any member of that quintet.
Ultimate Zone Rating putting Tejada 1.1 runs to the good, or about 11 runs, while Defensive runs saved has him a run below average at shortstop. Call it a wash, and say he played something around average shortstop.
Bottom line, a .360 on-base percentage with average defense at short is very valuable. Now, if he could only slug his on-base percentage, the Mets would really have something. At 22, he should get a little stronger, and could well continue to develop offensively.
