The most frequent question I’ve received in the last 36 hours or so: Where does Zack Wheeler rank in my top 10 Mets prospects? Top 41?
Patrick asked me this on our Mostly Mets podcast this week. I think I flubbed the answer to him a little.
The truth is that I don’t know where precisely where Wheeler ranks, but it will be near the top of the Mets system. Lets start by separating the pitchers from the position players for a moment.
Matt Harvey is clearly the system’s top prospect. As I wrote earlier today, he’s figuring out AA. Scouts have love the fastball and have praised the progress he’s made with his secondary stuff.
Wheeler then hops into a battle with Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia as pitchers two through four. Ranking these three is tricky. All three come armed with big fastballs. All three have had command issues in the minors. All three have one secondary pitch that flashes plus (Mejia’s changeup, Familia’s slider and Wheeler’s curve). All have real potential.
However, unlike the other two guys, Wheeler is healthy and still in a-ball. The injury thing is important. Mejia will miss at least the first half of the 2012 season, if not more recovering from Tommy John surgery. Familia is currently out with right shoulder impingement, which, as I understand it, is another name for rotator cuff tendonitis. It’s not necessarily a big problem yet, but it’s not a good thing (not eating Mike Francesa’s egg-roll bad, at least not yet). Most pitchers, non-RA Dickey division, need both a healthy shoulder and an intact ulner collateral ligament. Mejia’s injury pushes back his timetable for making a big league impact to 2013.
If you buy the argument that Wheeler’s curveball is the best breaking ball of the three pitchers and weigh the value of health strongly, he’d be the #2 pitcher in the system behind Harvey. This is the direction I’m leaning at the moment. However, if you like the fact that Mejia has conquered AA and was off to a nice start in AAA in 2011 before getting hurt, and Familia had graduated from a-ball ahead of Wheeler with as much, if not more velocity on his fastball, then Wheeler drops to #4 among pitchers. Look, if Familia comes back and dominates AA in August with top-notch scouting reports, he would deserve a spot in front of Wheeler. There’s a reason I don’t re-rank the system in-season: things change all the time.
Notice too we haven’t touched on the position players where we’ll have to balance some of the same issues as for the pitchers. There’s the pure potential of first-round pick Brandon Nimmo, who I’m confident will sign near the August 15 deadline. I love what Cesar Puello, my pre-season #5, is doing right now in the FSL. He’d slipped badly up until his recent hot streak, but is climbing again. On tools alone, he’s right there with anyone. Similar to the more advanced, but injured Mejia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis who will be 24 on August 7, hit .298/.403/.505 for Buffalo before season-ending shoulder surgery. I had Nieuwenhuis ranked #4 in the pre-season. His ceiling is lower than Wheeler’s, now that he’s hurt, there’s plenty of risk with him too. At 23, Jordany Valdespin (.305/.349/.505) has put it together in AA, but I don’t think he’s reached the top five yet. Again, there’s an argument that Wheeler should rank above all of these guys.
If you want to argue that Baseball America had Wheeler at #35 in their mid-season rankings behind only Matt Harvey among Mets farm hands, be my guest. Remember though, Mejia was ranked ahead of both at both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus entering the year.
So, yeah, I’m refusing to put a number to Wheeler’s rank in the system right now. He sure looks like a top five guy right now, but over 25% of the 2011 minor league season remains ahead.
